posted October 5, 2007 at 21:48 in NFL Free Picks
NFL Betting Free Picks – Miami Dolphins (+6.5) at Houston Texans (-6.5)
The Miami Dolphins (0-4 SU, 0-2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U) are an absolute disgrace at the moment and look like they could take another step or two backwards before the NFL betting season is over. Miami is ranked 17th in overall offense but has watched its normally stellar defense fall all the way to 22nd in the league overall. 37-year-old starting quarterback Trent Green looks like he is two steps away from retirement.
The Houston Texans (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-1 O/U) are off to a surprising start under new quarterback Matt Schaub even if they did lose to the Atlanta Falcons 26-16 last week. Houston is also in the process of building one of the best defensive lines in the game and is currently ranked 13th in the league in overall defense. Houston is also ranked 16th in overall offense.
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends followed by my Free NFL Betting Picks:
Key Dolphins Trends
The Dolphins are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home.
The Dolphins are 8-3-1 ATS in their last twelve games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
The Dolphins are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Key Texans Trends
The Texans are 5-0 ATS in their last five games on Grass.
The Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
The Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
Key Totals Trends
The Under is 5-0-1 in Dolphins last six games in Week Five.
The Over is 12-2 in Dolphins last 14 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
The Over is 5-1 in Texans last six vs. a team with a losing record.
The Over is 9-2 in Texans last eleven games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
No trends available.
Analysis: The Dolphins should go down in flames once again with the Texans needing this win badly after losing last Sunday. Take the Texans – and their defensive line – to pound and pressure Green into a long afternoon that results in a Texans win and cover.
NFL Free Picks: Texans 21 Dolphins 14
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