Posted on
9/21/2007 6:26:49 PM
NFL Betting Free Picks – Buffalo Bills (+16) at New England Patriots (-16)
By Eric Williams
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The Buffalo Bills, (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U) have not looked good in dropping their first two games of the 2007 season, particularly on offense, where the team has scored a grand total of 17 points combined in both games. Not only are they struggling on offense, but Buffalos defense has been almost non-existent as well. The Bills are ranked 31st overall in both, offense and defense, statistics that make it hard for any team to win.
The New England Patriots, (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U) have scored 38 points in each of their opening two games and look like the league’s best team after providing quarterback Tom Brady with his best receiving group in his professional career.
New England is ranked second in overall offense and first in overall defense.
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends followed by my Free Football Betting Picks:
Key Bills Trends
The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.
The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Key Patriots Trends
The Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
The Patriots are 52-8-1 ATS in their last 61 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
The Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a S.U. win.
Key Totals Trends
The Under is 10-2 in Bills last twelve games in September.
The Under is 4-1 in Bills last five games overall.
The Over is 4-0 in Patriots last four games on Field Turf.
The Over is 4-0 in Patriots last four home games.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
The Under is 8-0 in the last eight meetings in New England.
The Favorite is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.
The Under is 17-5 in the last 22 meetings.
Analysis: Can the Patriots make it three consecutive routs in a row? While everything about this game screams “Patriots” in a cakewalk, something tells me the Bills are going to cover the high, 16.5-point spread while going down swinging. The best bet in this matchup may be the ‘Over.’
NFL Free Picks: Patriots 31 Bills 17
01:00 PM EST NFL Odds
Buffalo Bills +16 -110
New England Patriots -16 -110
Over 42 -110
Under 42 -110
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