Posted on 10/10/2007 4:53:57 PM

NFL Betting – Cowboys Cover Patriots

By Russell Edward

When was the last time a 5-0 team was almost a touchdown underdog at home in the NFL. Who knows? But, considering that this is only the fifth time that two 5-0 teams have met in the 88-year history of the NFL, it is a good bet that this has never been the case. Should it be? And what does it mean in terms of NFL betting?

New England Patriots –6.5 @ Dallas Cowboys +6.5

What makes the Patriots 6.5 point favorites? Neither team has played anyone of consequence yet this season; at least no team either has played has been of consequence at the time they played either the Cowboys or the Pats.

The Patriots have played five games and won them handily, but none of their opponents are ranked higher than 22nd in total defense and their last three games have been won against defenses that rank 31, 30 and 32 in the NFL, respectively. So, while their 2nd-ranked offense is certainly on fire, they have had little resistance as of yet.

The Cowboys have played five games as well and also have won handily, except for that Monday night craziness in Buffalo, where they still won, despite turning the ball over an amazing six times. Still, their highest-ranked offense has encountered nothing in the way of resistance. The highest-ranked defense they have played against was the Giants, who are ranked 13th now. However, they played the Cowboys in Week One and the Giants defense was absolutely atrocious for the first two weeks until they were able to gel and get Strahan on track.

On the defensive side for these two squads, the Cowboys have played no one in the top half of the NFL offenses yet this season. Certainly, playing poorer teams helps your defensive numbers and it shows, as the Cowboys are the 8th overall defense coming into the game.

The Patriots, meanwhile, are the 2nd-ranked defense in the league, but have not really been up against anything resembling a fearsome offense, except for the Bengals. Granted, the Pats took it to Cincinnati on the road and that does say something. They beat them so badly, in fact, that Bengals coach Marvin Lewis went off on a well-documented tirade that will either win his team over or lose them irreversibly.

The thing to look at here, then, with all else being so relatively close, is that the Patriots are on the road. With the home team getting three pints for home field, this then means the books would have made the Pats 9.5-point favorites over the number on offense in the league?

No. They would not have.

They are hoping bettors forget about how these two teams could very well be closely matched and, instead, remember all the New England hype while also remembering how close Buffalo came to beating the Cowboys.

This line is falsely inflated in favor of New England.

And here is your proof.

***While this was being written, the line dropped to Patriots –5.5 even though all the money was coming in on New England. So, the books have dropped the line to encourage even more offside betting on the Pats. That means they know something. Now, so do you.

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