Posted on 10/19/2007 9:55:37 PM

NFL Betting Pick: Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville

By D.S. Williamson

This is an NFL bettors dream. You’ve got a top offensive team on the road versus a terrific defensive team and they are giving points to that terrific defensive team.

Oh, did I mention that the terrific defensive team actually has a pretty good running game to keep that terrific offense from that terrific offensive team off the field?

If you don’t know where I’m going in this game, then you need not worry. I’ve got plenty more nuggets for you to mine in order to make my case that not only will the Jaguars beat the BetUS – 4 against the spread they face, but they will also beat the Colts outright.

This figures to be a terrific game for NFL bettors to make some money on. Why? Because even though the trend for the Colts says that they beat teams with a winning record, they are 7 – 2 against the spread in their last 9 games, a more important trend is in favor of the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The OVER is 6 -2 in the Jaguars’ last 8 games versus AFC opponents. That’s right, 6 and 2. But, here’s the kicker. Since the Jaguars defense is so great, who do you think is scoring all of those points? The Jaguars!

They certainly haven’t played any great defensive teams in those last 8 games, but they aren’t facing one this Monday either in the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts biggest issue is run defense. Even if their top run-stopper, Bob Sanders, plays the Jags have a huge shot in this game.

It’s that defense that the Colts need to worry about. Only one of the Jag’s five opponents this year has scored 17 points. That was the Houston Texans last week. In that game, the Jag’s scored 37. So, it’s no consolation to anybody thinking of beating the Jaguars that they gave up 17 to Houston. In their other games, they have pretty much kept opponents out of the end-zone.

Now, I’m not saying that they can keep the Colts out of the end-zone, but I am saying that with a much better running game than what the Colts have faced recently, the Jags will be awfully tough to get the ball from. Their quarterback, David Garrard, is ultra-efficient. He hasn’t thrown an interception this year.

The BetUS NFL Line is Jacksonville + 4 at home versus the Indianapolis Colts. Take the Jaguars to not only beat that spread, but maybe even to win this game outright.

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