posted September 29, 2007 at 07:16 in NFL Betting Trends

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All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars.

Football Lines are subject to change.

OAKLAND at MIAMI (NFL Line: Miami -4, Total: 41.5) -- Oakland is showing some enthusiasm for new coach Lane Kiffin, arguably playing well enough to win all three of its games. This, despite the fact that the defense is not performing at the level it found last year, when it kept the team from drifting into the Pacific Ocean. And with a change in signal-callers, there is the addition of a storyline that may add some additional offensive life.

No matter what Daunte Culpepper says, this is going to be an emotional occasion for him. In case you did not follow his travail, he came to the Dolphin camp healthy and ready to go this season, but the team, under new coach Cam Cameron, did not want to let him practice with the team. Culpepper filed a grievance with the Players Association and earned his "freedom," then wound up with the Raiders. Due to Josh McCown's foot injury, he gets to start in all likelihood on Sunday. Culpepper got brief playing time for Oakland against Cleveland and threw 14 passes as the Raiders scored their first win of the season. McCown's injury may in fact be a blessing, because Culpepper will offer this attack more downfield capabilities.

Going downfield is a problem for Miami quarterback Trent Green, who is doing a lot of dinking and dunking for Cameron. Miami's running game got a little boost last week with 112 yards against the Jets, but the Dolphins are having problems in the same area that gave Art Shell nightmares last season - the offensive line. Miami used to be able to play the weather to its advantage, especially early in the season. But the Fins are just 9-23 against the spread at home going back four years.

JAY'S Free Pick: OAKLAND **

CHICAGO at DETROIT (NFL Line: Chicago -3.5, Total: 45) -- What had been suspected sometime in the fourth quarter of Sunday night's game is now a reality, as coach Lovie Smith has made the move to replace Brian Griese with Rex Grossman. Now Griese is back close to his old University of Michigan haunt. Will that cut down on turnovers and silly mental mistakes? Well, let's put it this way - if it does, Grossman, whose contract with the Bears expires after this season, may well have started his last game in the NFL.

The Lions suffered an awful embarrassment last week in Philadelphia, surrendering 537 yards and 56 points to the Eagles. However, though Griese is an improvement over Grossman, he's not as potent as Donovan McNabb, and we're not sure the Chicago offense is set up for that kind of firepower. There are multiple reasons why the Bears offense is ranked 30th in the NFL, and one of them is the mediocre play of Cedric Benson, who could survive as a spot player but with a 3.2 ypc average as Chicago's workhorse, is not going to help Griese sustain a lot of drives.

Yes, Detroit is one-dimensional, but unlike Chicago, the offense is not malfunctioning. Jon Kitna (68%) is going to make mistakes, and some of them may turn into points for the other team. But he will also get his numbers; against Philly he threw for 446 yards, and has 980 for the year to lead the league. The wide receiver combo of Williams, Johnson and Furrey is in place. Note that off the Dallas game, Chicago's defense is around the middle of the pack in the early going, so the "back door," if such a word can be used here, is available.

JAY'S Free Pick: DETROIT **

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(Charles Jay of TotalAction.com went pro a long time ago. He is a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)