Posted on
3/14/2008 6:31:12 PM
NCAA SEC Quarterfinal Pick – Alabama vs. Mississippi State
By Eric Williams
The Alabama Crimson Tide, (17-15 SU, 11-15 ATS, 14-12 O/U), have won just four of their last ten games, but have picked up half their wins in their last two contests, including an emphatic 80-69 win over the Florida Gators last night, that should effectively knock the two-time defending champions out of this year’s NCAA Championship Tournament.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs, (21-9 SU, 14-13 ATS, 11-14-2 O/U), are 7-3 in their last ten games in the BetUS.com Sportsbook and an even more impressive 4-1 in their last five games, including a solid 84-75 win over LSU on Saturday.
The Bulldogs are averaging a respectable 73.7 points per game on 46.8 percent shooting and are limiting their opponents to just 65.0 points per game on 36.9 percent shooting.
The Crimson Tide is averaging 75.5 points per game on 46.1 percent shooting but are allowing opponents to put up 73.0 points per game on 43.6 percent shooting.
Despite their on-court mediocrity, the Tide has gone 4-1 against the spread in their last five games while the Bulldogs are 2-1 against the spread in their last three games.
The Bulldogs have beaten the Tide twice this season, winning 66-56 at Alabama on Jan. 19 and 73-66 at home on Feb. 6
Here is a look at tonight’s Key Trends, followed by my NCAA Basketball Picks.
The Crimson Tide is 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
The Crimson Tide are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.
The Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS loss.
The Bulldogs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win.
The Over is 5-0 in Crimson Tide last five neutral site games.
The Under is 6-1-1 in Bulldogs last eight games following a ATS loss.
The Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
The Crimson Tide are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings.
Analysis: With two wins over the Tide that have both surpassed tonight’s point spread, the Bulldogs are the unequivocal pick to win this matchup and cover the spread completing their three-game sweep of their conference rivals.
NCAAB Free Picks: Mississippi State -5½ Points/Under 139 Total Points
07:30 PM EST NCAAB Betting Odds
Alabama +5½ -110
Mississippi State -5½ -110
Over 139 -110
Under 139 -110
Southeastern Conference- Quarterfinals @ Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA
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