posted March 25, 2008 at 12:06 in NCAA B Betting Trends

Florida Gators (+ 3.5) vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (- 3.5)

Tip-off: 9:00 pm est.

This should be an exciting game. The Gators won the NCAA Championship last year. The Sun Devils feel like they were robbed out of an NCAA Tournament birth after beating the Arizona Wildcats twice. The Wildcats got the berth and then laid an egg against the West Virginia Mountaineers. ASU also got screwed in the Pac-10 Tournament when a suspect call sort of ended their chances against the USC Trojans, another Pac-10 team that laid an egg in the NCAA Tournament. They seem to playing with a chip on their shoulder as the Devils dominated Southern Illinois in their last. ASU beat the Sulukis by 14 points. The BetUS line was 5.5 which makes me believe this squad is fired up.

Florida was a huge disappointment in the SEC Tournament. I really thought they were going to make a run. It didn’t happen. Whatever issues they had during that tournament look to have been fixed as the Gators have dominated both of their opponents in the NIT so far. They beat San Diego State 73 to 49 and then beat Creighton 82 to 54. The key in both games, as evidenced by the scores, was Florida’s terrific defense. Here are some trends.

The Florida Gators are 4 and 0 against the spread in their last 4 games versus a team from the Pacific-10 Conference.

The Arizona State Sun Devils are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last 6 overall games.

The Under is 4 and 1 in the Arizona State Sun Devils last 5 games.

The Under is 5 and 1 in the Florida Gators last 6 non-conference games.

The BetUS over/under in this game is 133. Although the line looks short, that’s only 66 points from each team; it makes sense as the Arizona State Sun Devils have scored 65 and 64 points respectively in their last two games.

Florida has done better scoring 73 and 81 points in their last two games, but that was against teams that aren’t even close to the caliber of the ASU Sun Devils.

These factors make this a very difficult BetUS over/under to call. I’m going to have to step away from that BetUS over/under line and instead concentrate on the winner of this game against the BetUS spread.

ASU is a good team, but the truth about them is that they played in a very overrated conference. The Pac-10 has served up three teams into the Sweet 16, but one of those teams, Stanford, got lucky against Marquette and should get wholloped by the Texas Longhorns this weekend. The other team, Washington State, had an easy ride into the Sweet 16 but now faces UNC. They have no chance. UCLA is a great team and has every chance of winning the national championship, but after the Bruins, the Pac-10 hasn’t provided all that much in the tournament. Oregon, USC, and Arizona, the three teams on ASU’s level, all bowed out early.

The Gators played terribly in the SEC this year. But they seem different in this NIT Tournament. After four straight losses to close out the SEC, Florida had every right to just give up in the first game in the NIT. They didn’t. Instead, they dominated. They dominated in their second game.

I don’t believe that the Gators will dominate ASU, but I do believe that they will put up a tremendous fight. I think they have what it takes to upset the Sun Devils.

I’ll put some dollars on the BetUS NCAAB money-line.

The BetUS money-line in the ASU Sun Devils vs. Florida Gators game is Florida Gators + 145.

I think Gator Coach Billy Donovan has his team playing at a super-high level. They should have enough to handle the Sun Devils.

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