Posted on 3/13/2008 1:03:05 PM

NCAA March Madness Odds - ILLINOIS vs. PENN STATE

By Charles jay

BetUS NCAA basketball betting odds: ILLINOIS -8, Total 118.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions (15-15 SU, 12-14-1 ATS) will look to get their record over the .500 mark on Thursday afternoon when they take on the Fighting Illini of Illinois (13-18 SU, 12-19 ATS) in a battle of also-rans in the first round of the Big Ten tournament, tipping off at 2:30 PM ET at the Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

In the BetUS NCAA basketball betting odds, Illinois is listed as an eight-point favorite, with a total of 118.5 points.

Here are some of the NCAAB betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* ILL has lost seven of its last ten games SU

* ILL has covered three of its last ten games

* ILL has played its last four games UNDER the total

* PSU has won three of its last four games SU

* PSU has played six of its last nine games UNDER the total

* PSU has covered six of the last eight meetings

* ILL has won seven of the last ten meetings SU

* ILL has had the shooting edge in nine of the last ten meetings

* ILL has had the rebounding edge in five of the last seven meetings

We couldn't make the claim that Illinois has completely given up, as the Illini have beaten Iowa and Minnesota in the course of rapping up their Big ten schedule. And there is no question about the stinginess of this club, which has yielded less than 40% shooting to opposing teams. Beyond that, forward Brian Randle is back in the rotation to give this team some toughness.

That having been said, Illinois like to keep things at a reasonable pace, and is not an explosive offensive team, so laying this number of points is always going to be risky. On top of that, Penn State managed a season sweep over the Illini this season, and did so without the services of Geary Claxton, who was thought to be one of the better players in the Big Ten. Actually, you have to admire the job coach Ed DeChellis has done in holding this team together enough to even achieve a .500 record and a possible trip to the NIT is it can win this one.

The Lions managed to go 5-5 in their last ten games, and that included overachieving wins against Michigan State and Indiana. they won't necessarily be handicapped by their poor shooting, from the floor or the free throw line, because Illinois is worse. And the Lions are disciplined enough to keep turnovers down (just 12.4 a game). They can keep things competitive here. Very competitive.

Let's grab the points with Penn State, the eight-point underdog in the BetUS NCAAB betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: PENN STATE

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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com gives it the old college try as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)