Posted on 3/3/2008 7:43:29 PM

NCAA March Madness Betting - CONFERENCE USA ONE HORSE LEAGUE?

By Charles Jay

BetUS NCAA Basketball March Madness Odds:

CONFERENCE TO WIN 2007-08 NCAA HOOPS CHAMPIONSHIP

ACC Conference +200

Big East Conference +700

Big 10 Conference +800

Big 12 Conference +300

CUSA Conference +450

Mountain West Conference +7000

Pacific 10 Conference +250

SEC Conference +700

Field +1200

BetUS NCAAB betting odds to win NCAA Championship: CUSA +450 (9/2)

We could waste our time and yours by discussing the likes of HOUSTON and ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM, but they might not even make it to the Big Dance. In fact, they're bubble teams at best unless one of them beats the league leader in the C-USA tourney. Listen - if you're talking about Conference USA, you're talking about one team and one team only.

MEMPHIS -- There really is no competition for Memphis in Conference USA unless a major upset occurs in the conference tournament. Even then, there is no doubt that the Tigers are head and shoulders above the rest in terms of their NCAA chances. Coach John Calipari implemented the "Calipari Plan," part of which prescribed that his team stay in Conference USA and not get too beat up during the league season.

This is not to leave the impression that Memphis has faced a bunch of creampuffs, though. the other part of the "Plan" called for a strong non-conference schedule, and the Tigers have gone through that almost flawlessly, beating the likes of U-Conn, Oklahoma, USC, Georgetown, Arizona and Gonzaga. The only slip-up was the loss to Tennessee a little more than a week ago.

There is a true All-American candidate in Chris Douglas-Roberts (17.5 ppg, 55% FG's), bruisers up front in Robert Dozier and Joey Dorsey, who combine for 17 rebounds and more than four blocked shots per game, the sure-handed Antonio Anderson (2.4-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio) and one of the best freshmen in the country in Derrick Rose, who within this grouping of outstanding players has averaged 13.9 points, 4.3 rebounds and 4.4 assists. And the Tigers have more depth than they did last year. Memphis likes to play at a real fast pace, which is going to leave a lot of teams in the dust.

If there are a couple of chinks in the Tigers' armour, it's that 1) there is not really a dependable three-point marksman other than Chris Douglas-Roberts, who is 46% from beyond the arc. But he doesn't throw that many up there; and 2) These guys do not make free throws. In fact, Memphis is dead last in all of Division I ball, at 58.9%. Aside from most of the bench players, Dorsey is the main culprit, at less than 34%. But actually, the other four starters are at 67% or above.

Calipari has to try to make up for some of that with aggressive defensive play, which has resulted in 8.8 steals per game and just 37.8% field goals allowed. Memphis can definitely play lockdown against its opponents.

You have to believe that Memphis has gained some valuable experience by making it to within a game of the Final Four the last two seasons. It's a borderline call as to whether a price of +450 really offers value, but there is one thing for sure - there is no guesswork in making Memphis a legitimate threat to win the national title, and one of the four or five very best teams in the country. So we'll go with it.

JAY'S VERDICT: VALUE

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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com gives it the old college try as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)