Posted on
3/14/2008 5:27:16 PM
NCAA Hoops Big 10 Quarterfinal Pick - Illinois vs. Purdue
By Eric Williams
The Illinois Fighting Illini, (14-18 SU, 12-19-1 ATS, 16-15-1 O/U), have won just four of their last ten contests in the BetUS.com Sportsbook but have picked a good time to pick up most of those wins as they have won three of their last four and two straight coming into tonight’s showdown including a close 64-63 win over Penn State in 1 Big Ten Tournament matchup yesterday.
The Purdue Boilermakers, (24-7 SU, 17-10-1 ATS, 14-14 O/U), have won eight of their last ten games in the BetUS.com Sportsbook, including an emphatic 72-58 win over Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament yesterday.
The Fighting Illini are averaging 64.1 points per game this season on 43.1 percent shooting while allowing 61.3 points per game on 39.6 percent shooting.
The Boilermakers are averaging 68.8 points per game on 42.4 percent shooting while holding their opponents to just 60.8 points per contest on 42.8 percent shooting.
Illinois is just 3-7 against the spread in their last ten games but has gone a respectable 2-2 against the spread in their last four games.
Purdue is a spectacular 8-1-1 against the spread in their last ten and 3-0-1 in their last four games.
Purdue has beaten Illinois twice this season, 74-67 at home on Jan. 19 and 83-75 at Illinois on Feb. 2.
Here is a look at tonight’s Key Trends, followed by my NCAA Basketball Wagering Free Picks:
The Fighting Illini are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 Friday games.
The Fighting Illini are 12-26 ATS in their last 38 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
The Boilermakers are 4-0 ATS in their last four Friday games.
The Boilermakers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
The Under is 5-1 in Fighting Illini last six neutral site games as an underdog.
The Under is 8-0 in Boilermakers last eight games as a favorite.
The Fighting Illini are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings.
Analysis: Illinois has had an absolutely fine season, but the Boilermakers are going to bring it to an emphatic end in this matchup tonight. Take the Boilermakers to roll to a huge win. I also like the ‘Over’ in a big way as these teams have gone over the 120-point O/U total in this game in each of their two meetings this season.
NCAAB Free Picks: Purdue -5 ½ Points/Over 120 Total Points
06:30 PM EST College Basketball Lines
Illinois +5½ -110
Purdue -5½ -110
Over 120 -110
Under 120 -110
Big 10 Conference - Quarterfinals @ Conseco Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
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