Posted on 4/7/2008 5:43:10 PM

NCAA Furious Free Pick – Memphis vs. Kansas

By Tim Furious

Kansas Jayhawks (36-3) vs. Memphis Tigers (38-1)

Monday, April 7th --- Alamodome, San Antonio --- 9:15pm EST

NCAAB Betting Line: Memphis -3 (148.5)

They say that faith is the strongest thing in the world. You need to believe in yourself if you are to succeed. But sometimes, as is the case with Coach Calipari and the Memphis Tigers, taking a leap of faith is what is necessary. When Calipari employed the dribble-drive offense at the college level, he had to leave a lot to chance. He had to put the game in his playmaker’s hands. He had to “undercoach”. More importantly, he had to have faith.

And the results have been three years in the making…and staggering.

Memphis steam rolled right through UCLA in a 78-63 victory showing everyone in the country that absolutely nobody can keep up with them in a foot race. Derrick Rose is making a resounding case for tournament MVP, and the first overall pick in the upcoming NBA Draft, with a steady production of 14.8 points and 4.6 assists, but it’s the way he commands the floor that makes Memphis such a strong bet.

Kansas absolutely embarrassed the favored UNC Tar Heels en route to a huge upset that left the betting nation stunned. Kansas has continued to reward the few betting faithful around, with a 5-1 ATS record in their last six games. But colliding with a team like Memphis is going to be tough.

The Tigers use the much talked about dribble-drive motion offense to their advantage because they push some incredible athletes on the floor every time they hit the court. They run through opponents for 79.7 points per game on 46.8 percent shooting, but they put even the best teams on their heels by turning every game in to a track meet. And when that happens, only Memphis is walking out with a victory.

The Jayhawks, however, are an insanely adaptable team. They average 80.7 points per game and 61.3 points against per game. If one thing has been evident this season, it’s that Kansas can play any style of basketball. What they need to do, however, is take control of this game and slow it down so that Memphis doesn’t run them off the court. The problem is that Kansas, if they play Memphis’s game, will lose.

The dribble-drive motion offense revolves; essentially, clearing out the middle and letting your playmakers drive the lane. Kansas has a great defense, but they don’t have the athletes to keep up with Memphis. Against the one-man army of Davidson, they showed the ability to shut down one scorer and take control of the game. But Memphis has scorers at every position, and a beast down low who hordes down rebounds and blocks shots like he hates basketballs. That man is Joey Dorsey, who has 9.7 rebounds per game and 1.9 blocks. Count on him to reward the Memphis betting faithful by giving his team a bevy of second chances.

Ultimately, what I like about Memphis is that they’ve been together for three years. You can’t bet against that in a championship game at the college level. With the stunning rate of personnel turnover, it’s a wonder that Memphis has kept its roster intact. The result? One loss on the season and a bountiful amount of “we’re on the same page” team chemistry. That’s simply something you don’t bet against at the college level. Have I said that enough times? Just checking.

I love the OVER (as does everyone else, apparently) because I expect Memphis to score the lights out. Kansas has the shooting touch to keep up with them on the scoreboard, but Memphis is going to take this game after hustling for forty straight minutes. I’ve loved Memphis all season for the chemistry reasons, but I never imagined that they’d get to this point. And now that they’re here, I can’t see them losing. What I can see is everyone who sides with them rejoicing on Tuesday morning.

Faith paid off for Coach Calipari in Memphis in believing in a European system of basketball and sticking with it. Bet on the Tigers in the OVER as Kansas keeps this game close. But as long as this line is Memphis -4.5 or below, I’m fine with it. Faith paid off for Coach Calipari in Memphis in believing in a European system of basketball and sticking with it. Keep the faith like Calipari. It rewarded him. Let it reward you too. Good luck tonight.

NCAAB Furious Free Pick: Memphis -3 (OVER)

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