Posted on
10/16/2007 2:29:41 PM
NCAA Football Wagering - Week 8
By D. S. Williamson
Things were crazy again last week in the world of Division 1-A college football. Both the number one ranked team in the nation, the Louisiana State University Tigers, and the number two team in the nation, the California Golden Bears, lost. That means that all of that talk about USC, Oklahoma, and Florida being out of the BCS Championship Game was all for naught.
Who’s Number 1 now? The Ohio State Buckeyes. Who’s Number 2? The South Florida Bulls. Crazy, crazy year so far.
This weekend promises the same sort of crazy action for college football bettors. Here’s a run down of this weekend’s top games:
Michigan State Spartans (+ 17.5) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes ( + 17.5) Ohio State is ranked number one in the nation and, yes, they probably do deserve it. After all, they have beaten everyone they have played this year. Of course, they haven’t played anybody of note. Not really, not yet. Are the Michigan State Spartans a viable “road dog” this weekend in Columbus? Actually, yes. The Buckeyes’ defense and offense have been great lately but they haven’t faced an offensive team like the Spartans yet this year and the trend has been for number one teams to struggle against supposedly lesser opponents. Ohio State doesn’t cover that often as it is. In its first test against a real Big-10 team, it makes sense to take the dog and expect the Bucks to have a tough one on their hands well into the fourth quarter.
Florida Gators ( - 7) vs. Kentucky Wildcats ( + 7) = The truth about both Florida and Kentucky is that they are just as good as LSU and Auburn. What that means is that Kentucky’s win versus LSU last weekend wasn’t a fluke. The truth about the Kentucky Wildcats are that they would be undefeated if they hadn’t had so many turnovers, on the road, versus a very good South Carolina defense. I’m not sure if the Gators’ D is any better than the Wildcats’ D. What that means is that you are getting 7 points on a very good team at home. Wow. Take it.
Michigan Wolverines ( - 3) vs. Illinois Illini ( + 3) = So far we’ve got two dogs, one home and one on the road, what about this match-up of Big-10 teams? Yes, that’s right, the home dog in this one, the Fighting Illini, are an excellent wager. They have one of the better spread offenses in the nation and the Wolverines D, no matter what they did versus Purdue, will find it difficult to contain the Illini. The Illini lost, on the road, against Iowa last week partly, I think, because of this game. The Wolverines will have a let down after beating Purdue so badly last Saturday while the Illini will be out to prove that their record isn’t a fluke. Take the Illini and make it three dogs in a row!
Auburn Tigers ( + 10.5) vs. LSU Fighting Tigers ( - 10.5) = Four dogs this Saturday? Okay, I won’t hold you in suspense. The Auburn Tigers are a terrific road team who has finally gotten it together after two early season losses. Let’s put those losses in perspective. First, the Tigers’ offense was putrid versus Kansas State. Second, their loss to the number two ranked team in the nation, the South Florida Bulls, is nothing to be too worried about. 10.5 points is an awfully high number for a game that figures to be closer to 9 to 3 than to 39 to 23. Take the Auburn Tigers in this one.
USC Trojans ( - 19) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish ( + 19) = What a tough game to figure. I mean, every trend on the planet has the Trojans winning this one easily, but can the Trojans even score 24 points? That’s what they will probably need. I believe that they can. The historical data suggests that when USC plays a team in the Pac-10 they usually win by about 8 points. When they play a non-conference opponent, they usually win by about 24 points. But, can they score 24 points. Against Notre Dame? I’m thinking they can.
Oregon Ducks ( - 11) vs. Washington Huskies ( + 11) = In all of the talk about ranked teams losing, NCAAF bettors have sort of forgotten about the Oregon Ducks. They have one of the best offenses in the nation and, save for an untimely fumble out of the end-zone in their scintillating battle versus the Cal Golden Bears, the Ducks would be undefeated and a clear cut favorite to make it to the BCS Championship. No worries here. They should cover this easily because the Huskies run a spread offense as well. That means the Ducks get tons of possessions to put up tons of points.
Miami Hurricanes ( + 6) vs. Florida State Seminoles ( - 6) = This used to be a big game some time ago, but this year neither team is even the best college football team in Florida. So, why even think about this game? Because two historically great teams like the
Hurricanes and
Seminoles always come to play against each other. That means the Hurricanes getting six points is a good deal for NCAAF bettors. Take the Canes, take the points, and watch as Hurricanes’ coach, Randy Shannon, starts a new era in Miami Hurricanes’ football.
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