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posted December 20, 2007 at 12:16 in NCAA F Articles

LAST POINTSPREAD RESULT: TCU beat San Diego State 45-33, rolling up 694 yards of offense but failing to cover as a 12.5-point favorite. Houston beat Marshall 35-28 on November 17, failing to cover as a 12-point favorite. Houston's last game was on Nov. 24, a 59-6 win over Texas Southern that did not have a line.

HEAD-TO-HEAD NCAA football betting trends:

* TCU has won the last four meetings SU

* TCU has covered three of the last four meetings

* The home team has covered the last three meetings

LAST MEETING: These teams last met back in 2004, as TCU beat Houston 34-27, covering as a 6.5-point favorite.

ABOUT TCU:

The Good News -- TCU ranked ninth in the nation in pass efficiency defense and allowed only 12 touchdown passes all year. The Frogs ranked in the top 20 in a number of categories, including rushing defense, scoring defense, total defense, net punting, punt returns and sacks.

The Bad News -- Running back Aaron Brown, the main cog in the TCU offense, was lost for the year in November. Redshirt freshman QB Andy Dalton was not sparkling, throwing just 10 TD passes to go with ten interceptions. And TCU was a disappointing minus-6 in turnover ratio.

TCU TRENDS:

* TCU has won 15 of its last 20 games SU

* TCU is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six road games

* TCU has covered its last four bowl appearances

ABOUT HOUSTON:

The Good News -- This amounts to a home game for the Cougars, who average 513 yards per game on offense, a figure exceeded by only three teams in the country. QB Case Keenum has done a pretty decent job taking over from four-year starter Kevin Kolb, completing 70% of his passes. Running back Anthony Alridge had three games of 200 yards or more, and finished with 1568 yards on the season.

The Bad News -- Head coach Art Briles has already left the program to take over at Baylor, and he has brought his offensive staff with him. Whoever is left will have to figure out how to protect the passer better, as Houston's offensive line allowed 29 sacks. The defense was so-so, yielding 366 yards a game. And the Cougars permitted 27 touchdowns through the air.

HOUSTON TRENDS:

* HOU is 1-5 ATS in its last six games

* HOU is 6-1 SU in its last seven games

* HOU has played five straight games UNDER the total

* HOU was 1-4 ATS at home this season

THE BOTTOM LINE: Losing Briles really hurts Houston, because he had his fingerprints all over this offensive scheme. TCU has always played tough defense, and defensive ends Tommy Blake and Chase Ortiz should keep the pressure on Keenum all night. Joe Turner, playing in place of Aaron Brown, ran for 226 yards against San Diego State, so he's a potential bright spot. The Horned Frogs defend the run well enough (just 3 ypc) to slow Alridge down, and thus should be able to provide the extra stop or two that makes the difference. We'll lay the points with TCU, a team that has demonstrated it comes to play in the post-season, and the four-point favorite in the BetUS college football betting odds.

WHAT: Texas Bowl

WHO: Texas Christian Horned Frogs (7-5 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) vs. Houston Cougars (8-4 SU, 4-7 ATS)

WHEN & WHERE: December 28, 8 PM ET at Reliant Stadium in Houston (grass)

BETUS COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING LINE: TCU -4, Total: 59

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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com loves to help people pick winners. He is a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)