Posted on 10/10/2007 4:30:41 PM

NCAA Football Wagering: Profiting on Reverse-Trends

By D.S. Williamson

One of the ways to make a profit over the long haul when betting on college football, is to find reverse trends. In the NFL, at times, it is easier because the NFL has less teams and less turnover with their personnel.

In college football, it is more difficult to find those reverse trends because usually in college football, the reverse trend is based on college coaching “angles” and not necessarily the make-up of the team.

For instance, when placing a wager on the Florida Gators, it is important to note that Gator head coach, Urban Meyer, is 21-3 against the spread in non conference games as a head coach. The 21-3 encompasses Meyer’s time at Utah and not just his time at Florida. That makes it a coaching “angle” and not necessarily a trend.

Eventually, of course, those coaching angles turn into team trends. One coaching angle that turned into a trend and now has turned into a reverse-trend is the following:

Pete Carroll is 28-9 against the spread coming off an OVER as the coach of USC

You can call this what you want - trend, coaching angle - if it makes you feel any better, but this year this trend has become worthless.

USC may have been 28-9 against the spread coming off an OVER, but they aren’t this year. In fact, USC, save for their game versus Nebraska, hasn’t covered a game this year. They didn’t cover against Idaho. They didn’t cover against Washington State and it went over. They didn’t cover against Washington. Then, they lost to Stanford.

Maybe, I’m wrong. Maybe, this isn’t necessarily a reverse trend. Maybe, the trend should be, USC cannot cover the spread when playing a Pac-10 team.

Actually, after crunching the numbers, this trend makes a lot of sense. Last year, USC beat their non-conference opponents by an average of 23 points. They beat their Pac-10 opponents by an average of 8 points.

Check-out this years’ scores:

Non-Conference:

USC 38, Idaho 10 = A difference of 28 point

USC 49, Nebraska 31 = A difference of 18 points (no trend)

Pac-10:

USC 47, Washington State 14 = A difference of 33 points (no trend)

USC 27, Washington 24 = A difference of 3 point (definite trend)

USC 23, Stanford 24 = A difference of -1 point (definite trend)

The 8 point average might be lower for USC this year if they continue on the path they are now. They have games versus Oregon, ASU, and Cal coming up. Can they expect to beat any of those teams by more than 8 points? If the average from last year holds, then the trend that USC does not cover the spread when playing Pac-10 teams may become very powerful.

The BetUS line on the USC versus Arizona Wildcats game this weekend is USC – 22.5 against the spread. See by how many points USC beats the Wildcats this weekend and then plan to place some wagers against, or for, USC in the future accordingly.

Until next week, good luck.

NCAA football betting has started, and BetUS sportsbook already has tons of college football Futures betting available for those of us who can't wait. Bet on the Heisman winner, Conference and Divisional winners and, of course, the 2008 BCS National Championship winner. Bet NCAA Football Futures in our sportsbook today in the Future / props section!