Posted on 10/17/2007 8:26:52 PM

College Football Betting: Bulls at Scarlet Knights

By Charles Jay

BetUS college football betting odds: South Florida -3, Total: 52

What looked in the pre-season like a pretty good Big East matchup has now taken on national championship implications, as the South Florida Bulls visit the state of New Jersey to play the state university of New Jersey - Rutgers - on the artificial turf of Rutgers Stadium, in a Thursday night game scheduled for 7:30 PM ET and televised on ESPN. In the BetUS NCAA betting odds, South Florida is listed at -3, with the over/under posted at 52 points.

South Florida has had a Cinderella year thus far. Wins over Auburn and West Virginia have punctuated a season that has produced a 6-0 SU (straight-up) and 3-1 ATS (against the spread) record. There have been four posted totals on USF's games, and they have played two games over and two games under the total. Right now South Florida is #3 in the USA Today poll, #2 in the Associated Press poll, and in the all-important Bowl Championship Series (BCS) standings, they are #2, which means if they win the rest of their games it is quite possible they could find themselves playing for the national title. Rutgers had title hopes at the season's outset, which have subsided. The Scarlet Knights are 4-2 SU and 3-2 ATS, playing three of their five lined games under the total.

South Florida's last game was an offensive explosion, as it outgained Central Florida by a 543-145 margin en route to a 64-12 win that easily covered the 11-point spread. Last Saturday, Rutgers went to Syracuse and scored a 38-14 win as a 17-point road favorite. Rutgers gained 538 yards in that game.

These teams have only played twice. In 2005 South Florida, a 2.5-point underdog, won a 45-31 game that naturally went over the posted total of 48.5. In 2006, Rutgers, a four-point road favorite, edged out the Bulls 22-20, failing to cover the number. In that game, Rutgers running back Ray Rice ran for 202 yards, making him the last player to rush for over 100 yards against the Bulls.

South Florida is about defense. The USF defense leads the nation with 11.2 tackles for loss per game, ranks fifth in pass efficiency defense, holding opponents to 51.5% completions, and stand at #11 in total defense. USF also has a +9 turnover margin. The South Florida offense has not been overly productive, but it is efficient, with 11.2 yards per point. There are several backs who can carry the ball, including Benjamin Williams and Mike Ford. QB Matt Grothe actually leads the team in rushing, with a shade under 58 yards a game. He has also completed 59% of his passes with only three INT's. Also:

* USF has covered six of its last eight conference games

* USF has covered 10 of its last 13 games overall

* USF has won 15 of its last 19 games SU

* USF has covered seven of its last ten games as a favorite

Rutgers, like South Florida, is tough against the run (3.3 ypc allowed) and with Rice, an early Heisman Trophy candidate (136 yards a game, fifth in the nation), they have a chance to move the ball on the ground against a very tough USF front. Junior Mike Teel is rated fifth nationally in passing efficiency, and his 10.82 yards per attempt is tops among all Division 1-A quarterbacks. Rutgers is 18th in the nation in passing efficiency defense and 11th in total offense, so they have balance. But losses to Maryland and Cincinnati have put a damper on their season. Also:

* Rutgers has won 11 of its last 13 home games SU

* Rutgers is 7-1 ATS in its last eight as a dog

* Rutgers is 2-13 as a dog of two or more pts. against an opponent with revenge motive

There are not a lot of tech trends to go on, especially of the head-to-head variety. But Rutgers, the three-point underdog in the BetUS NCAAF betting odds, may get a slight technical edge here, based on the fact that the Knights seem dangerous when getting points. They are on their home field, and this is the first time South Florida is playing on artificial turf this season.

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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com loves to help people pick winners. He is a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)