Posted on 10/12/2007 6:24:23 PM

College Football: Wisconsin Badgers (+7) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (- 7)

By D.S. Williamson

The Wisconsin Badgers got into a hole last week and then couldn’t get out of it against a very stout Illinois team. Penn State, meanwhile, beat Iowa 27 to 7 at home.

What’s the most important thing to remember about what happened last week? It’s not that Wisconsin lost their first game in almost a year. It’s not that the Badgers made a good effort to try and beat Illinois in the fourth quarter.

No, the real thing to remember is that Wisconsin gave up 289 yards on the ground to Illinois. They struggled mightily with the Illini defense while Penn State rediscovered its own defense against Iowa.

Penn State has one of the most powerful trends in college football. They are virtually unbeatable at home, but that’s not the thing that is most impressive. The thing that is most impressive about Penn State is how they have won at home.

First, here’s the trend:

NCAA Football Betting Trend: Penn State has won 18 out of their last 19 games at home.

Now, here’s what impressive about that trend:

In those 18 wins, Penn State has outscored their opponents 610 to 195.

That is a huge difference! Now, when one takes into account that Wisconsin will be without their senior wide receiver, Luke Swan, and that the Badger D has given up an unbelievable 65 points and 967 yards of total offense in their last two games, the pick of the week is obvious.

Penn State will roll in this game. There is no way that Wisconsin can stop a Penn State team that averages close to 32 points a game, at home, where they usually outscore opponents by an incredible margin.

Wisconsin can’t stop anybody. So far this year, they have given up 21 points to Washington State, 31 points to The Citadel, 34 points to Michigan State, and 31 to Illinois last week.

Penn State, meanwhile, has been unstoppable offensively. The Nittany Lions did give up 24 points to Buffalo, but that was late in the game. They also gave up 20 points to Illinois. Other than that, they haven’t given up more than 10 points to any other team they have played this year.

The likelihood of Penn State stopping Wisconsin’s offense is much higher than Wisconsin stopping Penn State’s offense. In a game where both teams need to win it is always a good idea to take the home team. When you are staring at a home team that has won 18 out of their last 19 in their stadium the way the Nittany Lions have, giving up a touchdown is almost nothing.

The BetUS college football line is Penn State – 7 against the spread. Take the Nittany Lions and count your cash after the game.

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