Posted on 10/4/2007 7:21:33 PM

NCAA Football Odds - Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans

By Charles Jay

Michigan State finds itself looking to get its national ranking back this week, although their college football betting backers would be just fine with the Spartans pushing their point spread record two games over the .500 mark. Meanwhile, the Northwestern Wildcats are just trying to win a couple of games so they can get into a minor bowl. The two teams meet up in a Big Ten matchup on the grass surface at Spartan Stadium in Lansing, at noon (ET) on Saturday. The betting odds have Michigan State listed at -14.5 at BetUS.

With last week's 37-34 loss to Wisconsin, Michigan State now finds itself on the fringes of the Top 25 in the two major polls (USA Today and Associated Press). In that game, Michigan State was a 7-point dog, so the Spartans managed to push their ATS (against the spread) record to 3-2, while its SU (straight-up) mark dropped to 4-1.

Northwestern out-gained Michigan last weekend by a margin of 417-380, but lost by the score of 28-16 at home, giving up 21 second-half points to allow the Wolverines to come from behind. The Wildcats' five turnovers were a key factor, but they nonetheless covered the 17-point spread.

In the HEAD-TO-HEAD trends...

* Northwestern has covered four of the last five in the series
* The underdog is 6-2 ATS the last eight meetings
* Northwestern has scored 24 points or more in each of the last five meetings

Last season's game was a barn burner, as Michigan State, a 9.5-point favorite, won by a 41-38 score, in a game that totaled 876 yards of offense. Two years ago, the teams combined for over 1000 yards.

Michigan State is averaging 33 points a game this season, allowing 19.8. The Spartans have averaged 8.1 yards per pass play, and 4.6 yards per rush. The defense has registered 23 sacks, one of the top totals in the country. Also....

* Mich. St. is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games
* Mich. St. is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games
* Six of the last seven Mich. St. home games have gone under the total

Northwestern was embarrassed a couple of weeks ago, gaining no net rushing yards and out-gained 396-120 overall in a 58-7 loss to Ohio State. Naturally, the Wildcats did not cover the 24.5-point spread. Northwestern has allowed 240 passing yards a game and is rated 113th in the nation in passing efficiency defense. The Wildcats have averaged just 20 points a game on offense, gaining just 3.6 yards a rush, and they've given up 27.4 ppg. Also...

* NW'ern is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games
* NW'ern is 2-4 ATS and 1-5 SU in its last six road games
* Eight of Northwestern's last 12 games on the road have gone under the total

On a head-to-head basis, Northwestern, the 14.5-point underdog in the betting odds at BetUS, has the technical edge, but it also looks like the trends point more strongly toward an “under”.

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