Posted on
1/2/2008 4:17:41 PM
Bet On NCAA Football - No. 3 Oklahoma vs. No. 11 West Virginia
By Robby Maddux
Tonight, the No. 11 West Virginia Mountaineers (+10) attempts to rebound from its most devastating loss in the history of the school when they face the No. 3 Oklahoma Sooners (-10) in the Fiesta Bowl beginning at 8:00pm EST.
West Virginia was one win away from a trip to the BCS title game, but then-No. 2 West Virginia was shocked at home in a 13-9 defeat to sub-.500 Pittsburgh on Dec. 1 as the four touchdown favorites. If the Mountaineers are to atone for the loss, they'll have to do so minus a major component to the club.
West Virginia's head coach Rich Rodriguez will not be on the sideline for this game after announcing he was leaving the school after seven years to take over at Michigan. This is enormous to the football betting community because Rodriguez used to call all plays, so this evening the Mountaineers will have to rely on a source that's not accustom to making calls and that could be a problem.
Key to victory for West Virginia is the play of quarterback Pat White. White is the Big East record holder for rushing yards by a quarterback with 3,356, including 1,185 this season to go with his 1,548 yards passing. He ran for 14 touchdowns while getting sacked just eight times, and threw for 12 scores with only four interceptions.
The Mountaineers come into the Fiesta Bowl at 10-2 SU (straight up) and 6-6 ATS (against the spread). The only two losses this season came in games in which White was injured.
With White and tailback Steve Slaton, who ran for 17 touchdowns and his third straight 1,000-yard season, the Mountaineers boast the country's fourth-ranked rushing offense with 292.9 yards per game.
- Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
- Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
- Mountaineers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games.
- Mountaineers are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mountaineers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games on grass.
- Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
White and Slaton will face an Oklahoma run defense which ranks eighth nationally, giving up an average of 91.9 yards. The pass defense will be missing two key players. All-Big 12 cornerback Reggie Smith is sidelined by a broken toe and his replacement was supposed to be Lendy Holmes, who usually starts at safety, but he has been ruled academically ineligible.
Overall, the Sooners are allowing a stingy 18.2 points per game and 324.0 yards. Meanwhile, the offensive is ranked third in the country and is putting up a hefty 43.4 points and 451.2 yards per game. They are stout on both sides of the ball to have manufactured a SU record of 11-2 and 7-6 ATS.
While the Sooners have the third-most bowl wins in college football with a 24-15-1 record, the Mountaineers are 11-15 and have won their last two - including a 2006 Sugar victory over Georgia in their only previous BCS bowl.
The Sooners are 2-1 all-time versus the Mountaineers, but these programs have not met since 1987. Oklahoma is 1-2 at the Fiesta Bowl and West Virginia lost its only appearance, falling 34-21 to Notre Dame in 1989.
- Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
- Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
- Sooners are 13-6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
NCAA football odds list Oklahoma the 10-point favorites with a game total of 62½.
- Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games as a favorite.
Analysis: Minus a head coach and coming of a huge let down, it's hard to imagine West Virginia playing up to its best ability. Oklahoma is clearly one of the best two-loss teams in the nation, and tonight they'll prove it in a rout.
NCAAF Betting Free Picks: Oklahoma Sooners -10
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