posted September 5, 2007 at 19:34 in NCAA F Articles

If you saw Louisville's 73-10 rout over Murray State in the season opener, you may understand why oddsmakers have pegged the Cardinals colossal 40-point favorites, as displayed in NCAA football odds, in their meeting on Thursday against Middle Tennessee State.

But for the NCAA football betting community, is 40 points too many to lay in just the second game of the young 2007 season? Considering the Cardinals are playing a soft opponent and had one of the nation's most prolific offenses last season (who gained the third-most yards with 6,179 and averaged 37.8 points per game which was fifth-best) the answer is no.

Louisville will bring a 19-game home winning streak to the table. It's the second-longest in NCAA football behind USC. Last year, the Cardinals went 5-1 against the spread in front of the home folks.

Heisman hopeful quarterback Brian Brohm completed 16-of-21 passes for 375 yards and four touchdowns in just over a half of work last week. Against Middle Tennessee, expect Brohm to hook up with receiver Mario Urrutia often.

In 2006, these two schools locked up for the first time, as the Cardinals won 44-17 at Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders are 0-2 straight up against Big East teams, and have lost all 11 of their games against ranked opponents.

Last week, Middle Tennessee State was downed by Florida Atlantic 24-17 as the slight underdogs in a game the Blue Raiders compiled only 199 yards passing and an embarrassing 18 on the ground.

They will most likely improve on their defensive stats against Louisville's defense who looked suspect in their season opener despite allowing just 10 points. The Cardinals gave up 130 rushing yards and 141 passing yards and had several missed tackles in that game.

Offensively, Middle Tennessee State is led by junior quarterback Joe Craddock, who completed 20-of-32 passes for 199 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in his first collegiate start in Week 1.

The Blue Raiders were the Sun Belt Conference co-champions in 2006 and should fare much better than Murray State against Louisville. In the same year, they were a respectable 5-2 against the spread on the road.

NCAA Football Free Picks: Middle Tennessee State +40

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