Posted on
11/8/2007 4:09:21 PM
Bet On NCAAF - West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Louisville Cardinals
By Robby Maddux
The No. 6 West Virginia Mountaineers (-17) look for a fourth consecutive SU (straight up) victory tonight when they host the unranked Louisville Cardinals (+17) in a Big East matchup and we have the NCAA football betting crazies winning selection.
West Virginia is 6-2 SU versus Louisville, including a 4-1 mark at home. The Cardinals won 9-7 on Sept. 22, 1990 for their lone victory at Morgantown.
West Virginia opened this year's campaign ranked third, but fell to 13th after a money-dropping 21-13 road loss as the touchdown favorites to then-No.18 South Florida on Sept. 28 in their only SU loss of the year.
Since then, the Mountaineers have decisive victories over Syracuse, Mississippi State and most recently a 31-3 money-making romp as the 6½-point favorites at Rutgers on Oct. 27 making for a 7-1 SU record and an ATS (against the spread) mark of 5-3.
The Mountaineers are coming off a bye week and when doing so they are 8-3 ATS in their last eleven games. They are second in the conference, 1 1/2 games behind Connecticut, which will be in Morgantown on Nov. 24. The Mountaineers are 25-11-1 ATS in their last 37 conference games.
West Virginia is led by quarterback Pat White, who ran for 125 yards and four touchdowns on 23 carries and threw for 222 yards last season against Louisville, but the Cardinals went on to win 44-34 as the 2-point underdogs.
The Mountaineers have a good running game headed up by Steve Slaton, who has rushed for 344 yards and six touchdowns on 49 carries in two contests against Louisville. He ran for 188 yards and five touchdowns and also caught a touchdown pass in West Virginia's 46-44 overtime victory over the Cardinals in Morgantown on Oct. 15, 2005.
The Mountaineers rank seventh in the country offensively, averaging 40.8 points per game, and have put up 41.3 in their last three victories. The unit is collecting 440.6 yards per game with 297.9 coming via the run which is sixth-best in college football.
Defensively, West Virginia is surrendering 14.9 points per game and 262.1 yards. The squad ranks sixth in the nation in points allowed.
- Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
- Mountaineers are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mountaineers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
Louisville has been one of the nation's biggest disappointments after beginning the year ranked No. 10 and rising as high as eighth before consecutive losses to Kentucky and Syracuse knocked it out of the poll.
They enter tonight's game as owners of a 5-4 SU record and they are 2-6 ATS.
Louisville is coming off a 24-17 victory over Pittsburgh on Oct. 27 but they failed to cover as the 10-point favorites. It was the fewest points allowed by the Cardinals since a 29-10 win at North Carolina State on Sept. 29. Louisville has failed to cash in back-to-back contests.
Under center for the Cardinals is Brian Brohm, who threw for 354 yards and a touchdown against West Virginia last season, and has completed 66.7 percent of his passes for 631 yards and three touchdowns in two contests against the Mountaineers.
Brohm is second in the nation in passing yards (3,229), third in yards per game (358.8) and tied for fourth in touchdowns (26).
Offensively, Louisville is putting up 37 points per game and 510.4 yards, while the defense is giving up 27.3 points and 411.3 yards.
- Cardinals are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in November.
- Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on turf.
- Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win.
NCAA football odds list West Virginia the 17-point favorites with a game total of 63½.
- Mountaineers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite.
- Mountaineers are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
- Cardinals are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog.
- Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Analysis: The Mountaineers struggle to put back-to-back cover victories together, as they are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a money-making win. The bye will help and they'll most likely get the SU win, but they'll fail to cover the relatively big number. Take Louisville and the points and enjoy.
NCAA Football Free Picks: West Virgina 37 Louisville 28
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