Posted on
12/27/2007 4:06:20 PM
NCAA Football Wagering – Armed Forces Bowl
By Charles Jay
LAST POINTSPREAD RESULT: Air Force roughed up San Diego State 55-23 as a 13-point favorite, and did so behind 569 rushing yards. California closed out its regular season with a 20-13 loss to Stanford as a 14-point road favorite.
LAST MEETING: These teams last met in 2004, and Cal hung a 56-14 defeat on Air Force as a 14-point favorite.
ABOUT AIR FORCE:
The Good News -- Air Force is second in the nation in rushing, averaging 299 yards a game. Chad Hall is a premier weapon, gaining 1415 rushing yards and 488 yards receiving. He scored 15 touchdowns. Air Force also posted a +8 turnover ratio.
The Bad News -- Only one team threw for less yards than Air Force. The Falcons compiled only 120 yards passing per game. Also, Air Force was last in action on November 17, which means it has been inactive for two whole weeks more than Cal.
AIR FORCE TRENDS:
* AF has covered seven straight games
* AF has won six of its last seven games SU
* AF has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
ABOUT CALIFORNIA:
The Good News -- Running back Justin Forsett gained 1403 yards on five yards a carry. The offensive line did a very good job at protecting the passer, giving up just 11 sacks.
The Bad News -- California collapsed, losing six of its last seven games. Nate Longshore threw eleven interceptions in his last six games. Over the last six games, the Bears did not score more than 23 points.
CALIFORNIA TRENDS:
* CAL was 0-7 ATS in its last seven games
* CAL has won 16 of its last 24 games SU
* CAL has covered two of its last nine games as a favorite
* CAL is 13-26-1 ATS in its last 40 games
* CAL has played five UNDERS in its last six games
THE BOTTOM LINE: Talk about "underachiever" vs. "overachiever." These teams are going in decidedly different directions. Air Force has covered its last seven games, while California had failed to cover its last seven. The Bears, who were once #2 in the country, wound up 6-6. Nate Longshore is inconsistent; DeSean Jackson, hyped as a Heisman candidate, has been disappointing even when he isn't injured. Air Force has done a good job of making adjustments in its offense under new coach Troy Calhoun, moving back more toward the option that was successful for years under Fisher DeBerry. While stopping short of saying it's an unhealthy atmosphere in Berkeley, Jeff Tedford's team would have to offer concrete evidence that there is a turnaround in the offing before we moved against a Flacon squad that, like all service academy teams, really appreciates the trips to the post-season, rather than looking at them as a booby prize.
We'll grab points with Air Force, the 3.5--point underdog in the BetUS college football betting odds.
WHAT: Armed Forces Bowl
WHO: Air Force Falcons (9-3 SU, 9-2 ATS) vs. California Golden Bears (6-6 SU, 3-8 ATS)
WHEN & WHERE: December 31, 12:30 PM ET at Amon Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, TX (grass)
BETUS COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING LINE: CALIFORNIA -3.5, Total: 54.5
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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com loves to help people pick winners. He is a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)