Up to NCAA F Betting Trends

posted January 4, 2008 at 17:13 in NCAA F Betting Trends

The four traditional major bowls have come and gone. There are a couple of minor bowls to take care of, but these are mere preliminaries to the main event of the NCAAF betting season: Monday’s BSC Championship Game between the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes and the No. 2 Louisiana State Tigers.

The Tigers go into this matchup as 4.5-point favorites (-200 on the moneyline) with a total of 48.5 points. From a purely technical standpoint, the Tigers have been something of a disappointment this year at 5-7-1 against the spread. Expectations in Baton Rouge have been sky-high; the smallest pointspread LSU saw this year was 6.5 points, and 10 of the Tigers’ 13 games featured double-digit spreads. That turned out to be unrealistic in a deep and talented SEC. The Tigers were 2-6-1 ATS within their conference compared to 3-1 ATS outside.

The Big Ten’s reputation took something of a hit last year at this time when the favored Buckeyes were bitten by the Florida Gators (+8) for the national title. Things didn’t go too smoothly this year either, as all the Big Ten heavyweights found themselves on the canvas at one point or another. OSU’s moment of truth was in Week 11, when the Illinois Fighting Illini came to Ohio Stadium as 15.5-point underdogs and beat the Buckeyes 28-21.

It took monumental collapses by a number of elite teams over the final two weeks for Ohio State and Louisiana State to become the chosen ones of the BCS. However, despite complaints of snubbery from two-loss teams like Georgia, the computers did a pretty good job of piecing together a deserving contest for the college football betting title.

Playing in the tough SEC and suffering both their losses in triple overtime, the Tigers are the top-ranked team in the nation in terms of game efficiency. Ohio State was dominant enough at 7-4 ATS to merit the No. 3 spot in the efficiency rankings. The Buckeyes dropped Michigan and Penn State by double digits in their own buildings, shredded Wisconsin 38-17, and hit the West Coast to pound Washington by 19 points for good measure.

Ohio State’s strength, as it was last year, is defense. The Buckeyes allowed just 227.6 yards (148.2 through the air) and 10.7 points per game, by far the stingiest numbers in the FBS. But this is hardly a carbon copy of last year’s club. The concern for 2006 was that the young defense wouldn’t keep up with players like QB Troy Smith, WR Ted Ginn and WR Anthony Gonzalez. The shoe was on the other foot for 2007; however, junior QB Todd Boeckman acquitted himself in his first full year under center with 23 TD throws and 12 interceptions.

Boeckman’s level of play wasn’t spectacular, but it was sufficient for OSU to post an average winning margin of 22.7 points and drive the over to a 6-5 record. Now he has to at least maintain that productivity against the No. 9 pass defense in the nation (180.8 yards allowed per game). The Tigers have a stellar defensive line, led by Glenn Dorsey at tackle, and LSU turned the heat up high enough to produce 33 turnovers. It can’t be stressed enough that the Buckeyes’ offense will be performing indoors at the Superdome in front of 70,000 screaming Louisianans.

The Tigers are even better on the other end of the ball. The combination of Matt Flynn and Ryan Perrilloux at quarterback was a rare luxury for LSU; Perrilloux is the more dangerous of the two, although off-field distractions contributed to his limited minutes this season. Coach Les Miles hasn’t used the two pivots in tandem the same way Florida did last year with Chris Leak and Tim Tebow, but if one fails to produce on Monday, the other will get his chance. Consider it an insurance policy for the Tigers and their supporters.

The NCAAF odds are loaded with proposition bets for the title game, so make sure to check them out. Kick-off is at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on FOX.

NCAA football betting is coming to an end, and BetUS sportsbook already has tons of college football Bowl Game odds and NCAA football lines available for those of us who can't wait. Bet on the 2008 BCS National Championship winner. Bet NCAA Football Futures in our sportsbook today in the Future / props section!