Posted on
3/6/2008 5:03:01 PM
NCAA Basketball Betting - UTAH STATE at BOISE STATE
By Charles Jay
BetUS NCAA basketball betting odds: BOISE STATE -4, Total 153
The two best shooting teams in Division I basketball will get together on Thursday night in Idaho when the Utah State Aggies (21-9 SU, 11-13-1 ATS) pay a visit to the Boise State Broncos (22-7 SU, 14-9 ATS) in a Western Athletic Conference game that is slated to begin at 9 PM ET at the Taco Bell Arena.
In the BetUS NCAAB betting odds, Boise State is listed as a four-point favorite, with a total of 153 points.
Here are some of the NCAAB betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* UST has covered four of its last six games
* UST has won 16 of its last 20 games SU
* UST has played nine of its last 13 games OVER the total
* UST has covered two of its last six road games
* UST has lost four of its last five road games SU
* UST has played four of its last six road games OVER the total
* BST has won five of its last six games SU
* BST has won six of its last seven home games SU
* BST has covered the last five meetings
* UST has won six of the last seven meetings SU
* Four of the last five meetings have gone OVER the total
* BST has covered four of the last five meetings as the home team
These teams rank 1-2 in the country in field goal percentage, both hitting 51% from the field. Boise State has an opportunity to win undisputed claim to the regular season title of the WAC tonight, although it must be said that the only championship that will mean anything, i.e., that which relates to an automatic NCAA bid - will go to the tournament winner. However, the NIT will not only guarantee an invite to the regular season champ, that team will host a first-round game.
Interestingly, Boise State's scoring numbers are lower at home (79.7 ppg) than they are on the road (81.5 ppg). And those numbers are a little lower recently, as they include a poor 42% effort against Siena in a 23-point blowout loss (Siena also beat Stanford early in the year, so it's not a huge shame).
There is a problem here for the Broncos, though, as Matt Nelson, the 6'9" forward who averages almost 16 points a game on a sizzling 65% shooting, went down with a sprained ankle in the game against Hawaii. Because this is the last home game for the seniors, Nelson will dress, but he hasn't practiced on the ankle. Meanwhile, Jaycee Carroll has no such injury worries, and the Utah State guard exploded for 33 points against Fresno State last time out. Carroll is the nation's top three-point marksman at close to 51%.
Utah State has outshot opponents by a mammoth 57%-39.5% margin in the last three games. Tough neither team has a discernible edge on defense, we'll move with Utah State's momentum, which is better lately, and with their ability to convert from the charity stripe (79%, as opposed to just 65% for Boise).
We'll grab the points with the Aggies, the four-point underdogs in the BetUS NCAA basketball betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: UTAH STATE
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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com gives it the old college try as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)