Posted on 3/26/2008 2:29:26 PM

NCAA Basketball Betting - Trends Favor UNC, Michigan State, West Kentucky, Louisville

By D.S Williamson

After studying the trends for this weekend’s games in the Sweet 16, I came to a few surprising conclusions. This years’ NCAAB Tournament has been nothing short of spectacular with a team like the Davidson Wildcats upsetting the mighty Georgetown Hoyas and the Texas Longhorns, Memphis Tigers, UCLA Bruins, and Tennessee Volunteers playing in tight games just to make it to the Sweet 16.

Not a single one of those teams has any betting trends that favor them this weekend. Outside of North Carolina, this is where the surprises come into play.

Michigan State, Western Kentucky, Louisville and North Carolina are the serious betting trend plays this weekend. Trends don’t lie. That means that there could be some huge upsets before Saturday.

Let’s take a look at some games where there are overpowering trends:

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Washington State Cougars – BetUS line North Carolina – 8 - - The trends are all over the Tar Heels in this game. Even though the Cougars are pretty good against the BetUS spread as an underdog, going 5 and 1 in their last six games as an underdog of 7 to 12.5 points, the Tar Heels are just super hot. North Carolina has scored 221 points in two games in this tournament. They have given up a total of 151 points. That makes them en fuego. The Heels are 7 and 1 against the BetUS spread in their last 8 games versus a team from the Pac-10. They are 4 and 1 against the BetUS spread in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games. I see NC taking care of business on Thursday.

Michigan State Spartans vs. Memphis Tigers – BetUS line Michigan State + 4.5 - - Memphis is a terrific offensive team, but just an okay defensive team. That’s the only reason to explain why they have trouble covering spreads. They didn’t cover against Texas-Arlington. They didn’t cover against Mississippi State. In fact the Tigers have covered against the BetUS spread in only 2 out of their last 10 games. Michigan State has covered in their last four games. That includes games versus the Pitt Panthers and the Wisconsin Badgers. The Spartans play defense better than the Tigers and Drew Neitzel might be that special player that can take the Spartans all the way.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. UCLA Bruins – BetUS line Western Kentucky + 12.5 - - The Hilltoppers have covered or beaten the BetUS spread in 7 straight games. That’s 7 straight games. UCLA is 4 and 6 against the BetUS spread in their last 10 games. Against teams with a straight-up winning record, Western Kentucky is 13 and 3 against the BetUS spread in their last 16 games. The biggest problem I see for the Bruins in this game is the fact that the Hilltoppers are a guard heavy team. Courtney Lee can do almost anything he wants right now. That includes taking it into the lane against UCLA center Kevin Love. The Hilltoppers might not shock the world, but they can certainly beat this spread.

Louisville Cardinals vs. Tennessee Volunteers – BetUS line Louisville – 2.5 - - Bruce Pearl is trying to find a suitable point-guard. Uh…you’re in the Sweet 16! You can replace a center. You can replace a forward but you can’t replace a point-guard! To make matters worse the Volunteers are 8-21-1 against the BetUS spread in their last 30 games at a neutral site. They’re only 5 and 5 against the BetUS spread in their last 10 games. They needed overtime in order to cover versus the Butler Bulldogs in their last NCAA Tournament game. Louisville is 8 and 2 against the BetUS spread in their last 10 games. They’re 9-1-1 against the spread in “away” games this season. Louisville should handle Tennessee easily in this one.

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