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posted February 22, 2008 at 18:13 in NCAA B Free Picks

It is probably the biggest college basketball game of the year. The Memphis Tigers (26-0 SU, 14-12 ATS), who hold the #1 position in both major polls, will play host to the Tennessee Volunteers (24-2 SU, 12-9-1 ATS), who are #1 in the RPI, in a prestigious in-state matchup that will be televised by ESPN and tips off at 9 PM ET on Saturday at the FedEx Forum.

Here are some of the NCAA college basketball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* TENN has won its last eight games SU

* TENN has covered six of its last eight games

* TENN has played five of its last eight games OVER the total

* TENN has won eight of its last nine road games SU

* MEM has covered two of its last six games

* MEM has played three of its last four games OVER the total

* MEM has covered one of its last five home games

* MEM has played three of its last four home games UNDER the total

* MEM has won two of the last three meetings SU

* TENN has covered the last three meetings

The winner of this game could wind up being the #1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament. So even though it is not a conference clash, there is quite a bit on the line. So far the "Calipari Plan" has worked for the Tigers, as they have not been overly taxed in their Conference USA schedule in order to remain relatively fresh once the Big Dance starts.

There is plenty in the way of positives to point to for both teams. Both are athletic, so it doesn't make any sense to compare the quality of athletes for both clubs. Memphis probably has more of a bruising front court presence in Joey Dorsey, as well as a point guard in Derrick Rose who is going to be a very high NBA draft choice if he declares (which is expected).

One thing we would NOT necessarily expect is for one coach to try to slow the game down. Both Tennessee (83.9 ppg) and Memphis (80.8 ppg) play with very high-octane offenses. A key to the success of what Tennessee has done is that Chris Lofton, the pre-season All-America, has peeled back his offensive game just a little to accommodate other talented individuals who populate the Volunteers' rotation, including a trio of Smiths - JaJuan, Tyler and Ramar - who average 36 points a game between them. And there has been a boost provided by the return of Duke Crews, who bangs the boards (4.8 rebounds per game in 16.5 minutes).

Memphis may have a small edge in terms of the non-conference teams it has beaten (among them USC, Georgetown and Arizona), but the potential Achilles heel for the Tigers is their inability to make their free throws much of the time. In fact, their free throw percentage of 58.8% ties them for LAST nationally. And let me remind you that there are 339 Division I schools in the country.

So far, that hasn't been the factor that has done Memphis in. But in a game where there are differences that are only subtle, that can indeed make the difference between covering the spread and not covering it. Since Memphis has no edge from beyond the arc (they make 7.6 threes per game, while Tennessee hits 9.3), they are going to have a hard time extending a lead, if they get it. Tennessee can keep this one within the number. And even though it would be only a mild upset, the money line might be worth looking at.

We'll take the Volunteers in the BetUS NCAA college basketball betting odds.

JAY'S PREDICTION: TENNESSEE BY 1

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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com gives it the old college try as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)