Posted on
2/28/2008 7:09:56 PM
NCAA Basketball Betting Picks - MICHIGAN STATE at WISCONSIN
By Charles Jay
BetUS NCAA college basketball betting odds: WISCONSIN -5, Total 124
Two big shots in the Big ten will lock horns on Thursday night in Madison when the Michigan State Spartans (22-5 SU, 10-13-1 ATS) visit the Wisconsin Badgers (23-4 SU, 12-12 ATS) in a showdown between conference teams that have a chance to make some noise come March. Tip-off time is 9 PM ET.
In the BetUS NCAA college basketball betting odds, Wisconsin is listed as a five-point favorite, with a total of 124 points.
Here are some of the NCAA basketball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* MSU has covered one of its last six games
* MSU has won 19 of its last 23 games SU
* MSU has played four of its last six games OVER the total
* MSU has covered three of its last ten road games
* MSU has lost 15 of its last 21 road games SU
* MSU has played four of its last five road games OVER the total
* WISC has won 17 of its last 19 games SU
* WISC has played four of its last six games OVER the total
* WISC has covered one of its last ten home games
* WISC has won eight of its last nine home games SU
* WISC has played four of its last five home games UNDER the total
* MSU has covered four of the last six meetings
* WISC has won nine of the last 12 meetings SU
* WISC has covered five of the last seven meetings as the home team
* WISC has won the last five meetings SU as the home team
* The home team has covered six of the last seven meetings
* MSU has had the shooting edge in six of the last eight meetings
* MSU has had the rebounding edge in six of the last seven meetings
* WISC has made more three-pointers in seven of the last eight meetings
Obviously both of these well-coached teams can play some defense - Wisconsin is yielding just 38.7% from the field, while in Michigan State's case it is 39.6%. Both are fundamentally sound. But Michigan State, which usually owns a significant rebounding edge over its opponents, won't find that to be the case here.
The Spartans have been the consistently better shooting team, and are feeling more confidence after winning back-to-back games over Iowa and Penn State. Michigan State usually comes on a little stronger down the stretch for Tom Izzo, and he says he sees some "progress" from his troops. Michigan State has been much weaker on the road, losing to all but the lesser lights in the Big Ten. But they've also scored a few good wins away from home, as they did against BYU and Bradley. Wisconsin can control the pace, allowing just 55 ppg at home (2nd in the country), but that kind of deliberate style has its drawbacks, such as the inability to put distance between itself and many opponents. That manifests itself in the ATS record, which is just 4-9 as a home favorite.
Izzo's team has a chance to play spoiler, as Wisconsin seeks to take a step closer to a Big Ten regular season title. But the Spartans have the experience and leadership (in the person of point guard Drew Neitzel, who made the Final Four as a freshman) to make a game of it for all 40 minutes.
Let's take the points with Michigan State, the five-point underdog in the BetUS NCAA basketball betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: MICHIGAN STATE
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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com gives it the old college try as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)