Posted on 2/29/2008 6:09:39 PM

NCAA Basketball Betting - DUKE at NORTH CAROLINA STATE

By Charles Jay

BetUS NCAA basketball betting matchup:

The Duke Blue Devils (24-3 SU, 14-10-2 ATS) did a good job of bouncing back with consecutive wins after consecutive losses. On Saturday they will travel - and not too far - over to Raleigh to face the North Carolina State Wolfpack (15-13 SU, 5-19-1 ATS) in an Atlantic Coast Conference game that starts at Noon ET at the RBC Center.

This game is not just important to Duke, which wants to maintain position as a "protected" seed in the NCAA tournament, but critical for N.C. State if it wants to go anywhere in the post-season, as the ACC tournament approaches.

Here are some of the NCAAB betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* DUKE has won 14 of its last 16 games SU

* DUKE is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games

* DUKE has played nine of its last 12 games OVER the total

* DUKE has won six of its last eight road games SU

* DUKE has played its last five road games OVER the total

* NCST has lost its last six games SU

* NCST is 2-12-1 ATS in its last 15 games

* NCST is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games

* NCST has played eight of its last 12 games OVER the total

* DUKE has won and covered five of the last six meetings SU

* The last seven meetings have gone OVER the total

* DUKE has had the shooting edge in four of the last six meetings

* DUKE has had the rebounding edge in four of the last six meetings

* DUKE has made more three-pointers in each of the last ten meetings

This is the chance for the Blue Devils to get win #800 for Coach K, and after the scare of losses to Miami and Wake Forest over the last couple of weeks, we would not expect Duke to let up at all against this neighborhood rival. N.C. State is a mess right now, with six straight losses, one cover in its last ten, and two covers in its last 15. While these kinds of figures may bring us a bloated number to deal with, it should be noted that Duke pulled ahead by a mile last time these two met; after a rather sluggish first half, they outscored the Wolfpack by a 55-26 count in the second half to turn a nine-point halftime deficit into a 92-72 victory.

On that night Duke shot 57% for the game and 64% threes in the second half. Has something happened in the interim that indicates North Carolina State is any tougher on the defensive end? No; in fact, quite the contrary, as opponents have scored 71 points or more in each of the last six games. The point is, the Wolfpack will allow this kind of pace - the pace Duke likes to play. That is a fundamental fact as well as an historical one, as the last seven meetings have been played over the total.

Yes, N.C. State still has a chance to get into a lesser tournament in March. But the simple fact is that they were in a much better position to do so before this losing streak, so we're not keen on a substantially better output in this heated rivalry against a vastly superior opponent.

We ill lay the points with Duke, a huge favorite in the BetUS NCAA basketball betting odds.

JAY'S PREDICTION: DUKE BY 23

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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com gives it the old college try as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)