Posted on
12/11/2007 3:59:05 PM
NCAA Basketball Betting - Sacramento State (2-6) at Oregon (7-1)
By Eric Williams
No. 16 Oregon (5-2-1 ATS, 4-4 O/U) takes on lowly Sacramento State (2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U) tonight in a matchup whose outcome may not be in jeopardy much, but still offers college basketball bettors an excellent opportunity to increase the overall bankroll.
Oregon enters this game coming off a solid 75-64 victory over Utah that improved their non-conference home winning streak to 14 games. The 75 points represented a season-low for the Ducks in scoring as the team is averaging a whopping 89.3 points per game.
Oregon has won three straight games since suffering its only defeat of the season to Saint Mary's, which moved into the Top 25 this week.
Senior Malik Hairston leads the Ducks in scoring, averaging 16.5 per game, while sophomore Tajuan Porter, (15.8 ppg) and senior Maarty Leunen, (15.1 points and 10.4 rebounds per game) give the Ducks a competent, if not overwhelming trio.
The Sacramento State Hornets (2-6) are coming off a 72-54 win over NAIA school William Jessup that snapped their five-game losing streak, but they haven't beaten an NCAA Division I team this season.
The Hornets are 1-27 all-time against Pac-10 teams, and have lost 11 consecutive road games going back to last season.
Sacramento State has just one player scoring in double figures in 6-foot-2 junior guard Loren Leath, who averages 18.6 points despite shooting an atrocious 39.3 percent from the field.
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my free NCAA basketball betting pick.
Key Sacramento State Trends
The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.
The Hornets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.
The Hornets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Tuesday games.
Key Oregon Trends
The Ducks are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.
The Ducks are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 home games.
The Ducks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Key Totals Trends
The Under is 5-1 in Hornets last 6 Tuesday games.
The Under is 5-2 in Hornets last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
The Under is 5-0 in Ducks last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400.
The Over is 4-1 in Ducks last 5 Tuesday games.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
The Under is 5-0 in Ducks last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. The Over is 4-1 in Ducks last 5 Tuesday games.
The Under is 23-10 in Ducks last 33 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.
Analysis: While the outcome of this game is not in question, I think that tonight’s 32.5-points spread is a bit too high for the Ducks to cover, even against a uninspiring, mediocre Sacramento State team that is two game sunder .500. Take Sacramento State to cover the high spread just barely in a losing effort college basketball bettors.
NCAA Basketball Free Picks: Sacramento State +32.5 Points
10:00 PM EST NCAA Basketball Odds
Sacramento State +32½ -110
Oregon -32½ -110
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