Posted on
11/12/2007 5:37:11 PM
NCAAF Wagering Kansas State vs Nebraska
By Charles Jay
ABOUT KANSAS STATE:
The Good News -- Kansas State is averaging 36.7 ppg, which is 20th in the country. The Wildcats have given up just eight quarterback sacks and are first in the nation in punt returns. Wide receiver Jordy Nelson has caught 90 passes for 1222 yards.
The Bad News -- Kansas State has rushed for just 81.3 yards a game on the road. That is 106th in the nation.
KANSAS STATE TRENDS:
* K-STATE is 0-5 ATS its last five as a road favorite
* K-STATE has played three of its last four games OVER the total
* K-STATE has covered just six of its last 19 road games
* K-STATE is 2-11 SU in its last 13 road games
* K-STATE has played OVER the total in 15 of its last 19 road games
ABOUT NEBRASKA:
The Bad News -- The Nebraska program is now a complete train wreck. And that is to the delight of rival fans that have seen the Huskers run up one gratuitous score after another through the years, particularly in the Tom Osborne era. Nebraska gets no pressure on the passer, registering just ten sacks on the year, and against Kansas surrendered 34 first downs, scores on ten straight possessions (with the exception of a kneel-down) and of course, the 76 points.
The Good News -- The players have a pretty good chance at scoring more than 76 points on some of their mid-term exams.
NEBRASKA TRENDS:
* NEBRASKA has covered one of its last nine games
* NEBRASKA has played five UNDERS in its last six games
* NEBRASKA is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games
* NEBRASKA has won 10 of its last 14 home games SU
* NEBRASKA has covered three of its last four as a home dog
WHO: Kansas State Wildcats (5-4 SU, 5-2-1 ATS) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-6 SU, 2-8 ATS)
WHEN & WHERE: Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, Memorial Stadium (artificial turf), Lincoln, NE
BETUS COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING LINE: Kansas State -7.5 (Total 64.5)
LAST POINTSPREAD RESULT: Kansas State lost 31-30 to Iowa State last Saturday, failing to cover as a 15-point road favorite. Nebraska gave up 76 points –it’s most ever at home - and lost 76-39 to Kansas, falling way short of the 19-point spread it was afforded as a road underdog.
HEAD-TO-HEAD college football betting trends:
* K-STATE has covered six of the last seven meetings
* NEBRASKA has won four of the last five meetings at home
* K-STATE has covered the last three meetings in Lincoln
* Five of the last six meetings have gone OVER the total
* The favorite has covered four of the last five meetings
* NEBRASKA leads the overall series 74-15-2 SU
LAST MEETING: As a nine-point road favorite, Nebraska won 21-3 last year in Manhattan. In that game, Kansas State managed just 22 net rushing yards.
THE BOTTOM LINE: Okay, we may have shortchanged you a little on the good news for Nebraska. Quarterback Joe Ganz, making his first start in place of Sam Keller, threw for 405 yards and four TD's last week. Of course, he also threw four interceptions. It is entirely conceivable that Kansas State may have been looking ahead to this potential feast, and that might have brought on the loss to have-not Iowa State. This Saturday, though, Josh Freeman, with time to throw, should find a lot of room against a Husker defense that has now surrendered 547 yards per game over the last five. If Kansas State can run the ball, they usually win. And they should do that here. We don't want to back the negative trend, and we're tempted to go with Kansas State, the bowl-seeking 7.5-point favorite in the BetUS college football betting odds, against a Nebraska program may already be interviewing candidates (Turner Gill maybe?) to replace Bill Callahan as head coach. However, we appreciate that this could be a wild one, and that Joe Ganz's passing has the potential to produce points for both sides. So we'll opt to go OVER the total of 64.5 points that is posted at BetUS Sportsbook.
NCAA football betting has started, and BetUS sportsbook already has tons of college football Futures betting available for those of us who can't wait. Bet on the Heisman winner, Conference and Divisional winners and, of course, the 2008 BCS National Championship winner. Bet NCAA Football Futures in our sportsbook today in the Future / props section!
(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com loves to help people pick winners. He is a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)