Posted on
10/26/2007 8:15:54 PM
College Football Betting: Golden Bears vs. Sun Devils
By Charles Jay
Just a couple of weeks ago, the Cal Golden Bears (5-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) were sitting at #2 in the ratings and harbored visions of a national championship. But now they are out of the picture, and the Arizona State Sun Devils (7-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) are very much IN. The two teams clash on Saturday night at 10 PM ET on the natural turf of Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe. In the BetUS college football betting odds, Arizona State is listed at -3 with the total posted at 60 points.
BetUS college football betting odds: Arizona St. -3, Total: 60
California suffered its second straight disappointing loss last Saturday, losing 30-21 to UCLA in Pasadena as a three-point favorite, gaining only 299 yards from scrimmage in the process. Arizona State had last week off, but kept rolling two weeks ago with a 44-20 win at home over Washington, covering the spread as a 12-point favorite.
In the HEAD-TO-HEAD college football betting trends:
* CAL has won and covered the last four meetings
* CAL has won and covered five of the last six meetings
* The last five meetings have been decided by double-digit margins
* Three of the last four meetings have gone over the total
* Neither team has had under 350 yards of offense in the last five meetings
Last year California, a 7.5-point favorite, won a resounding 49-21 decision in Berkeley, in which the Bears intercepted four passes and benefited from a punt return TD by DeSean Jackson. The game went over the 58-point posted total. The teams combined for 823 total yards.
California won its first five games, including wins over Tennessee and Oregon, then dropped its last two. Quarterback Nate Longshore went down with a sprained ankle and missed the game against Oregon State, and returned for the UCLA game to throw three TD passes and three INT's. Jackson, touted as a Heisman candidate early in the year, caught nine passes for 136 yards and two TD's in that contest. Cal averages 35 points a game and gives up 26. The Bears also yield 245 yards a game through the air, ranking 82nd nationally in that category. Longshore has completed 64% of his passes, with 10 TD's and five interceptions. Also:
* CAL has won 15 of its last 19 games SU
* CAL has covered one of its last five games as a dog
* CAL is 9-12 ATS in its last 21 Pac-10 games
Arizona State has already equaled last year's win total, which positions the well-traveled Dennis Erickson, in his first year at the school, as a prime Coach of the Year candidate. Currently the team is 7th in the USA Today and AP polls, and 4th in the all-important BCS standings. But ASU has had a rather soft schedule, with no ranked opponents yet, and road trips only to Stanford and Washington State. The Sun Devils have outscored foes by an average margin of 37.7-15.0, and the scoring defense is tied for fourth in the country. Opponents are rushing for just 90 yards a game. Rudy Carpenter has done a fantastic job leading the offense, completing 66% for 16 TD's. The offensive line, however, has given up 26 sacks. But Carpenter will be without help from running back Ryan Torain (5 ypc), who is out for the season with a foot injury. Also:
* ASU has won nine of its last 11 home games SU
* ASU has covered seven of its last 11 as a favorite
* ASU has played four of its six games this year under the total
The psychological effects of being out of the running, even for the Rose Bowl, are uncertain for Cal. But fundamentally, they match up here. And as stated, Arizona State's lofty perch has to be attributed at least in part to its advantageous scheduling. With Torain, the Sun Devils lack a rusher who can really pound it between the tackles. Cal, the three-point underdog on the BetUS college football betting line, is the choice here, plus the points.
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