posted November 27, 2007 at 14:34 in NCAA F Articles
NCAA Football Wagering - BCS Analysis, Week 13
by Tim Furious
1. Missouri Tigers (11-1) The Tigers have launched to the top of the standings. Missouri is the fifth best passing offense in the league, tossing for 336.8 yards per game and burning scoreboards for 41.9 points per match. Chase Daniel has been immaculate in his pursuit for the Heisman trophy. They have a huge matchup against the Oklahoma Sooners where they are favored by three points. They are 9-2 ATS, giving their betting faithful something to cheer about besides their amazing underdog story.
A win against Oklahoma will give them, not only a Big 12 Championship, but a berth in the BCS Finals. Oklahoma’s secondary is vulnerable, allowing 233.2 yards per game through the air. But this game will prove if Daniel can pull through in a big game with an unreal load of expectations, and infinite eyes watching him, when this game kicks off on Saturday night.
Next game: Oklahoma (-3) vs. Missouri
2. West Virginia Mountaineers (10-1)
Wow. Spanking Connecticut is one thing. Can they do the same to Pittsburgh in this year’s Backyard Brawl? Pittsburgh would love nothing more than to crush the Mountaineers’ BCS title aspirations with one devastating upset. Pat White’s play in recent weeks has all but diminished any lingering memory of the loss to Southern Florida.
Next game: Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia (-26.5)
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1)
Ohio State is a definitive candidate for the Rose Bowl Game because of their Big Ten champ status. However, if West Virginia and Missouri both stumble this weekend, the Buckeyes would get another crack at the national title for a second consecutive season. The Buckeyes have to be praying for some good fortune this weekend, as do the betting investors who took a chance on them to repeat an appearance in the BCS title game back in the preseason.
Next game: TBD
4. Georgia Bulldogs (10-2)
Georgia has all but secured an at-large spot, guaranteeing them a spot in the FedEx Orange Bowl. They only score 31.9 points per game, but their rushing attack has been steam rolling opponents lately. They piled up 218 rushing yards against rival Georgia Tech on the weekend and secured a spot in the BCS, which was far more than anyone expected from these UnderDawgs.
Next game: TBD
5. Kansas Jayhawks (11-1)
The Jayhawks were manhandled by Missouri in a pivotal matchup, giving further rise to the “Curse of #2”. They couldn’t score in the first half, and managed some garbage scores when the game was already well out of reach. Todd Reesing and the Jayhawks are fortunate to be this high in the BCS, and their betting investors need to keep their keen ear to the grindstone of Saturday’s action to see where Kansas ends up.
Next game: TBD
6. Virginia Tech Hokies (10-2)
Since losing to Boston College a month ago, Virginia Tech has gone on an absolute tear. They have crushed their last four opponents by a combined score of 144-59 and now have a shot at the ACC Championship when they face BC again in a rematch. BC has gone 2-4 ATS in their last six games, but this will be Matt Ryan’s final game as a college senior. You can expect fireworks as Ryan plays for glory and Virginia Tech plays for its BCS life.
Next game: Virginia Tech (-3.5) vs. Boston College
7. LSU Tigers (10-2)
The other Tigers desperately need to conquer the SEC Conference, and pray to the football gods that Missouri and West Virginia both lose this weekend. Of all the two-loss teams, the Tigers are clearly the best. But a devastating loss to unranked Arkansas has them pegged at seventh.
They hold a 41-point victory over Virginia Tech from September, but they need a lot of chips to fall in the right places for them. That makes them a tough prospect for BCS glory. Their 4-7-1 ATS record also makes them a tough call against Tennessee this weekend in Atlanta. A great season could end miserably for LSU and their betting backers if they can’t manage to squeeze out a victory.
Next game: Tennessee vs. LSU (-6)
8. USC Trojans (9-2)
The Trojans are cleaning up a disastrous start to the season quite nicely, but those two stinging losses are killing them. Everyone remembers the staggering loss to UCLA last season. Can the Bruins turn the BCS dream in to another nightmare for the rival Trojans? Probably not. But we said the same thing last year.
Next game: UCLA vs. Southern California (-16)
9. Oklahoma Sooners (10-2)
The best case scenario for the Sooners is a win against the Missouri this weekend. Oklahoma still boasts the third best offense in the league, averaging 43.8 points per game. A win would likely land them in the Fiesta Bowl, but getting past a momentum charged Tigers offense will be a tough test for a defense that hasn’t been able to rise to the occasion in big games.
Next game: Oklahoma (-3) vs. Missouri
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