Up to NCAA B Free Picks

posted February 20, 2008 at 18:02 in NCAA B Free Picks

NCAA basketball betting will be at its finest this evening starting at 7:00pm EST when No. 3 North Carolina Tar Heels (-8) invades the RBC Center in Raleigh to take on ACC rivals North Carolina State Wolfpack (+8) and we have your key trends and money-making selection.

When North Carolina visited North Carolina State last year as the nation's No. 3 team they got upset 83-79 on Feb. 3. That was with a healthy Ty Lawson on the floor. But Lawson is expected to be sidelined for the fifth straight game this evening.

They've been without Lawson for the last four games after he sprained his ankle during a Feb. 3 overtime win at Florida State, part of North Carolina's perfect road mark.

The Tar Heels, who trail first-place Duke by one game in the ACC, are 10-0 SU (straight up) on the road and 12-0 SU overall away from Chapel Hill this season.

- Tar Heels are 5-2 ATS (against the spread) in their last 7 vs. ACC foes.

- Tar Heels are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

- Tar Heels are 38-17 ATS in their last 55 games overall.

Lawson had 21 points and seven assists at N.C. State, but the Wolfpack shot 60.5 percent from the field to get the victory. It was their only win against North Carolina in the rivals' last 10 meetings.

North Carolina has won three consecutive games SU against N.C. State since the Feb. game, including a 93-62 blowout on Jan. 12, 2008. The Tar Heels also enter tonight's game having won three straight overall, including a 92-53 rout of Virginia Tech on Saturday.

 

- Tar Heels are 40-19-1 ATS in their last 60 games following a SU win.

- Tar Heels are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.

- Tar Heels are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.

A number of other players have also battled illness and injury in recent games, and it hadn't been easy without Lawson, as North Carolina lost to Duke, beat Clemson in double overtime and edged Virginia in the first three games without him.

Deon Thompson developed flu-like symptoms over the weekend but said it was determined that he did not officially have the flu. Thompson played just nine minutes against Virginia Tech because of a knee injury and then tweaked his back in the weight room on Monday.

 

In Thompson's absence, Alex Stepheson has continued to emerge. The sophomore from Los Angeles had a record-setting day against the Hokies, tying his career highs in minutes (21), made field goals (5), and points (11).

Tar Heel point guards alone have missed a combined 21 games this season due to injuries.

The Tar Heels' most emphatic win without Lawson came Saturday, when they held Virginia Tech to 25.9 percent shooting and out-rebounded the Hokies 54-24.

Wayne Ellington has quietly been a more effective rebounder lately, averaging 4.5 rebounds per game--nearly a full rebound per game over his season average--over his last six games.

Tyler Hansbrough had 23 points and nine rebounds and Ellington added 19 points to pace the Tar Heels against Virginia Tech. Each player had 13 points in the blowout of N.C. State last month, as North Carolina allowed just 13 first-half points.

N.C. State has lost its last three overall SU, including 71-64 at home to Clemson on Saturday. Freshman J.J. Hickson had 13 points and a season-high 23 rebounds while Gavin Grant added 18 points and seven boards, but the Wolfpack again struggled in the first half, trailing 34-23 at the break.

They bounced back in the second half and took a lead with less than three minutes to go, but allowed the game's final nine points.

- Wolfpack are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss.

N.C. State is 10-3 SU at home this season and has allowed just 63.9 points per game in home games. The Wolfpack's five ACC games at the RBC Center have been decided by an average of 4.8 points per game.

 

- Wolfpack are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Wednesday games.

- Wolfpack are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. ACC foes.

- Wolfpack are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

- Wolfpack are 8-24-2 ATS in their last 34 home games.

- Wolfpack are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall.

BetUS NCAA basketball odds list North Carolina the 8-point favorites with a game total of 152.

- Tar Heels are 38-17 ATS in their last 55 games as a favorite.

- Tar Heels are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5.

- Wolfpack are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.

- Wolfpack are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog.

Analysis: The NCAA basketball wagering community investing on the over when these two clash has gotten paid in seven of the last eight meetings. When they play in Raleigh the over is 5-1. Both teams will be running at a ''break neck'' pace, making for a high-scoring affair. Play over in this one and enjoy.

NCAA Basketball Free Picks: OVER 152 -110

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