Posted on 12/7/2007 5:07:18 PM

NCAAB Wagering - Wildcats vs. Fighting Illini

By D.S. Williamson

Both teams go into this game with records of 5 and 2. The difference is that Arizona has been playing defense as well as they have in the past 2 or 3 years.

The Wildcats have never been afraid to throw their freshmen into the fire and with Jeryd Bayless at point-guard, they’ve got one of the best freshman in the country. Forget about it. Bayless is going to be a star in the Pac-10, if he stays, which he probably will considering that the jump to the NBA as a point-guard is much more difficult than the jump as a forward.

The Wildcats also bring Chase Budinger into this game. The forward is deadly from about 15ft in. He’s also started to make his presence felt on the boards. Budinger will be tough for the Illini to handle in this one.

Don’t get me wrong, Illinois is not a bad team, but they are far removed from the days when Derron Williams was their floor general. Their top-scorer, Trent Williams, averages only about 11 points a game, and since he is a guard, he will have to expend a lot of energy on the defensive side trying to contain Bayless.

The trends also point to an Arizona win:

The Illinois Illini are 2 and 11 against the spread in their last 13 Saturday games.

The Illinois Illini are are 5-14 against the spread in their last 19 home games.

The key is to try and guess exactly where the against the line spread will end up. My feeling is that since the Arizona Wildcats are the superior team they will be the favorites in this game.

However, since they are on the road, the point spread won’t end up as high as college bettors might think. Arizona will be the favorite but they won’t be too high of a favorite.

Let’s set up our wagering rule at this number, then:

If the Arizona Wildcats are a – 6 point BetUS favorite or lower in this game, then they are a good wager to beat the BetUS college basketball spread.

Six points appears fair to me. The hope, of course, is that they are about a – 4 point BetUS favorite, but the – 6 gives us some wiggle room.

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