Posted on
4/7/2008 3:15:19 PM
NBA Western Playoff Betting Picture - It’s the Wild, Wild, NBA West
By D.S Williamson
Bang, bang, shoot, shoot is what we should expect out of the NBA Western Conference Playoffs this season! Bang, bang thanks to the Phoenix Suns’ Shaquille O’Neal, the New Orleans Hornets’ Tyson Chandler, the Utah Jazz’s Carlos Boozer, and the San Antonio Spurs’ Tim Duncan.
The shooting will come courtesy of the Hornets’ Chris Paul, the Suns’ Steve Nash, the Los Angeles Lakers’ Kobe Bryant, and the Utah Jazz’s Deron Williams. Oh, I forgot Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker for the San Antonio Spurs and Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry from the Dallas Mavericks. Yes, my fellow BetUS NBA bettors, these Western Conference playoffs are going to be downright exciting! There’s no other way to describe it!
Let’s take a look at the top five teams going into the playoffs as well as the potential first-round match-ups.
Top Five Teams in the Western Conference
New Orleans Hornets - - All this team does is win. Until they start losing and the San Antonio Spurs do grab the top spot in the playoffs, this is the team to watch in the Western Conference. Why? Because they are a fantastic 47-27-2 against the BetUS spread this season. They are an excellent 25 and 14 at home. Against the BetUS over/under, the Hornets prefer to play whatever style it takes to win going 37-37-2. They have the best point-guard in the NBA in Chris Paul and maybe the best coach in Byron Scott. If they secure home-court advantage, I love this team against the BetUS spread.
San Antonio Spurs - - What’s not to like about the Spurs? Not much. They are only 35-40-2 against the BetUS spread this season, but that doesn’t matter. We all know that the Spurs raise their intensity level in the playoffs. They’re still the favorite to get to the NBA Championship out of the West and a solid wager against the BetUS spread in the first-round. I also believe that they are going to carry over their penchant for playing under games as they are 32 and 45 against the BetUS over/under this season.
Los Angeles Lakers - - The Lakers, Jazz and Suns are all within a game or two of each other. So this order could change. It doesn’t really matter because I do believe the Lakers will just be awesome in these playoffs. They have the coach with experience, two solid big-men in Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum, and the best player, in my opinion, on the planet in Kobe Bryant. They need to step up their defensive intensity, but I do believe that coach Phil Jackson will get them to do it. Against the BetUS spread this team has been pretty good overall this season going 44-31-1. Sure, they’ve been somewhat awful lately, but I expect a nice turnaround in the playoffs. This team is neither a true over or under team going 39 and 37 against the BetUS over/under this season.
Utah Jazz - - For the Jazz the key is securing home-court in the first-round against either the Lakers or the Suns. If they don’t, I see them losing their first-round series as they are 15 and 23 against the BetUS spread on the road. They are also 16 and 22 straight-up on the road. If they do get home-court advantage, then they have a solid chance of beating either the Lakers or the Suns in a seven game series. The Jazz are 27 and 12 against the BetUS spread at home. Believe it or not this team favors the over as they have gone 41-35-1 against the BetUS over/under this season.
Phoenix Suns - - The Suns lost a key game this past Sunday against the Dallas Mavericks. This team doesn’t appear to have the heart, outside of Amare Stoudemire, to win it all. They must secure home-court advantage against the Utah Jazz. That means they have to win the Pacific Division. The Suns have a losing record against the BetUS spread this season - - going 36-38-2 - - but unlike the San Antonio Spurs, I don’t see these guys improving their game in the playoffs. They have the talent, but where’s the grit and intensity? They also aren’t as solid of an over team as some might think only going 43 and 34 against the BetUS over/under this season.
Potential First-Round Match-ups
As it stands right now the Hornets would play the Denver Nuggets. I think New Orleans beats the Nuggets in five games. I expect every game in this series to go over as Denver will find it difficult to not get into a run and shoot game with the Hornets. The Hornets love to dish to Peja Stojakovic for three-point shots and Chris Paul is awesome. New Orleans should run Denver out of the arena. But instead of worrying about who wins against the spread, I’ll be betting the overs.
San Antonio will have their hands full with the Dallas Mavericks. I don’t expect the Mavericks to just lay down for the Spurs. With Dirk back, and seemingly playing at 100%, I think that this is the worst first-round match-up possible for the Spurs. Because the Spurs shouldn’t be a huge favorite against the BetUS spread versus the Mavericks, I still see the Spurs covering most of these games. I expect a lot of under games in this series even though the Mavs can push the ball up the court.
If the Lakers end up playing the Suns, then expect the Suns to lose the series. It won’t be easy for the Lakers, but the Suns just don’t have that killer instinct. Kobe Bryant definitely does. The Lakers are also solid in every single position on the court. Also, do I need to say that every game in what might be seven goes over?
Houston versus Utah would be interesting but I just don’t have faith in the Rockets without Yao. They’ve showed grit by just making the playoffs, but against Carlos Boozer and Mehmut Okur upfront and Deron Williams in the back-court, Tracey McGrady and Co. will find the going very tough. I see the Jazz covering four out of the five games in this series. I just don’t think Houston can steal more than one game.
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