posted January 10, 2008 at 18:35 in NBA Free Picks

This isn’t exactly going to get NBA fans out of there seats, but for NBA bettors this game between the Grizzlies and the Kings sets up as a pretty fascinating affair.

What gets me in this match-up is the point spread. I’m not exactly sure where it’s coming from. I mean, neither team has a decided advantage after checking out these trends:

The Memphis Grizzlies are 8-7-1 against the spread in their last 16 games on the road.

The Sacramento Kings are 10-7 against the spread in their last 17 games at home.

But, these trends, regarding the Over/Under actually do give us insight into this match-up:

The OVER is 7 and 2 in the Memphis Grizzlies last 9 Thursday games.

The OVER is 21-7-1 in the Sacramento Kings 29 games versus a team from the NBA Southwest Division.

In their last four games the Sacramento Kings have averaged 98.28 points. In their last four games the Memphis Grizzlies have averaged 96.75 points. More important than that is that neither team has given up more than 100 points in their last four games.

Could we be looking at a trend reversal in this game? Could the Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings actually score less than the 202 over/under BetUS NBA line?

Absolutely! Both teams have started to play better defense and both teams have decided not to run in their last few games. Memphis racked up 101 points versus the Lakers the other night but that was because the Lakers pushed the ball relentlessly up the court. Without a true inside game, the Kings won’t do that. Expect a lot of long possessions by each team - - lots of rebounding and screens - - and few 10 – 10 two minute runs in this game.

Each team would have to average 25 points a quarter for them to hit the OVER in this game. I just don’t see it.

The BetUS OVER/UNDER basketball line is 202 when the Memphis Grizzlies meet the Sacramento Kings tonight.

I like the UNDER in this game.

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