Posted on
12/12/2007 4:30:24 PM
Basketball Wagering - Utah (+ 5.5) vs. Phoenix (- 5.5)
By D.S. Williamson
There is absolutely no way that this line goes off at less than 7 points. The Suns stubbed their toe versus the Miami Heat in their last game, but Utah has been absolutely terrible. The Jazz dropped a game to Portland by 8 points last night. That would be the Portland Trailblazers who before last night’s win in Portland were 2 and 9 against the spread in their last 11 games.
The chances of the Jazz actually going into Phoenix and pulling off a shocker is minimal. However, it’s still a good exercise to check-out the trends because we still always have to deal with the point spread.
The Utah Jazz are 6 and 2 against the spread in their last 8 versus a team from the NBA Pacific Division.
The Phoenix Suns are 4 and 5 against the spread at home this year.
Okay, so our trend analysis appears to tell us that the Jazz may cover the spread, but does that really give us the entire story? I’m sort of feeling that it doesn’t. This is the type of NBA game where it would be wise for us to go ahead and set up some ground rules for us.
The truth about this is that the Suns will be favored, like I wrote, by more than 5.5 points. That makes the Suns either an overlay or an underlay. It is important to study the line all the way up until tip-off.
Should the Suns go off at 6 points or less in this game, they are probably a good bet. If they go off in this game giving up more than 6 points, then they are probably a bad bet. The question then becomes is Utah a good bet?
I would have to say yes. In this situation, let the rules of the underlay and overlay work for you. In other words, the trends are saying that Phoenix is a bad bet no matter what the spread ends up. I am saying that use those trends judiciously, think about where the line should be and then, if it is below or above your own cut-off, wager accordingly.
The BetUS basketball line is Phoenix Suns – 5.5 against the spread at home versus the Utah Jazz.
Should the line stay at 5.5 or go up to 6, then the Suns are a good wager. Should the line rise above 6, however, then Utah may be a good wager.
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