Posted on
10/24/2007 6:02:30 PM
NBA Wagering: 2007-08 NBA Odds To Win Assists Title
By Eric Williams
Though Phoenix Suns point guard Steve Nash has led the league in assists the last three seasons – and is the clear-cut runaway favorite to win the assists title again this upcoming season, several players are nipping at Nash’s heels in the assists department, hoping they can surpass one of the greatest passers of all-time in the hopes of winning the 2007-08 NBA assists title.
Here is a breakdown on the list of candidates and their respective odds on unseating Nash as the NBA assist leader in 2007-08. The players are broken down into three categories. The ‘Contenders’ section lists the point guards with the best chance of actually beating Nash out and winning the award. The ‘Pretenders section is for those players that have an outside chance of making a run at the assist title, but won’t because of various reasons. Finally, the ‘Get Real’ category is for players that have absolutely no chance whatsoever of leading the league in assists.
With that long-winded explanation out of the way, let’s get down to business.
The Contenders
Steve Nash +150
With a high-powered offense that gets up and down the floor quickly, not to mention several competent teammates who know how to put the ball in the hole, this is Nash’s award to win or lose.
Baron Davis +1200
‘B-Diddy’ certainly has the requisite skills – and a fast-paced offense – that could help him to gain some ground on Nash. Davis may not win it because he is also a big-time scorer from the point guard position and may pass up some opportunities for assists so he can put the ball in the hole himself.
Deron Williams +1200
After witnessing last year’s playoffs, when Williams went absolutely bonkers, I believe Williams is capable of winning, not only the assist title, but also the MVP award at some point in what is shaping up to be a stellar career for the No.3 overall draft pick.
Chris Paul +1200
While I am almost certain that Paul will win one assist title before his career is over, I’m fairly certain that title won’t come until he gets a few more teammates in New Orleans that can put the ball in the hole on a consistent basis.
Jason Kidd +1200
A perennial candidate to lead the league in assists, Jason Kidd will be remembered as one of the greatest passers of all-time. If only he had one or two competent ‘bigs’ to pass the ball to.
Andre Miller +1500
Miller has already led the league in assists before and most certainly can turn the trick again with his pass-first mentality and an improving cast of teammates in Philadelphia. Now, if only he can help center Samuel Dalembert make lay-ups on a consistent basis.
Brevin Knight +2500
While he is a ‘contender’ that could probably win this award if he were a starter, Knight has been relegated to the status of backup or part-time starter for a few seasons now. To lead the league, Knight needs more than 20 minutes per game, which he likely won’t get this season – if ever again.
Mike Conley JR +3000
Conley Jr. is the only rookie on this list with what I believe is a realistic chance of actually winning the title at some point in his career. Conley reminds me a lot of Nate “Tiny” Archibald without as much prolific scoring ability. Maybe not this season, but Conley certainly has the skills to lead the league in assists at some point in the near future.
TJ Ford +1200
With a better cast of surrounding players, Ford could undoubtedly win this award if he puts his mind to it. It may not happen this year, but the assist title is certainly within the lightning-quick Ford’s grasp if he wants it bad enough.
Raymond Felton +2000
Felton is one of the best bets on the board in this wager. With the addition of Jason Richardson to go along with Gerald Wallace and Emeka Okafor, Felton, a fine passer, could make a challenge for the assist title this season.
The Pretenders
Allen Iverson +1200
Iverson wants a championship and not an assist title at this point in his Hall of Fame career. Besides, everyone knows he likes putting the ball in the hole more than passing it.
Rajon Rondo +1500
If Rondo can’t rack up at least eight assists per game playing alongside Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce, he doesn’t deserve to even be mentioned in this select group. However, I wouldn’t be surprised it Rondo makes a decent run at the assist title in the next two or three seasons.
Chauncey Billups +1500
Billups is more of an overall floor general than an all-out assist kind of guy. Detroit’s “Mr. Big Shot” is more apt to draining a game-winning ‘trey’ than to pass for the game-winning basket.
Jameer Nelson +3000
While I’ve been a huge Nelson fan since his day at St, Joe’s U. in Philadelphia, I have expected more out of the former collegiate Player of the Year ever since he entered the NBA. The fact of the matter is that Nelson is more of a combination point guard than one who is a pass-first traditional point.
Jamaal Tinsley +3000
I like Tinsley when he’s healthy, but that is far too infrequent for him to have a chance at winning this award. Besides, the enigmatic Tinsley is almost as apt to throw a pass in the 10th row as he is to an open teammate.
Kirk Hinrich +2000
Hinrich reminds me a bit of Steve Nash – without the incredible vision that is. Let’s wait for Hinrich to crack the top five before considering him for the outright title.
Sam Cassell +2500
Cassell is a fine passer, it’s just that he’s as good a scorer – and doesn’t have that many options to pass to particularly with Elton Brand out for half the regular season.
Mike Bibby +3000
I’ll simply say that Bibby hasn’t cracked the top five in assist leaders in the last three season and likely won’t again in 2007-08.
Tony Parker +3000
Forget the assist title. After winning last season’s Finals MVP award, Parker is primed for much bigger things than an assist title in 2007-08, like league MVP perhaps.
Get Real
Each one of these guards is a shoot-first, point guard or outright shooting guard and really poses no threat whatsoever to lead the league in assists in 2007-08 – if ever.
Jason Terry +3000
Dwayne Wade +1500
Gilbert Arenas +2000
Stephon Marbury +2000
LeBron James +3000
Kobe Bryant +3000
Brandon Roy +3000
Wager is for regular season only All bet are action. NBA.com for results
Top five assist leaders the last three seasons.
2006-07 Season
Steve Nash 11.6
Deron Williams 9.3
Jason Kidd 9.2
Chris Paul 8.9
Baron Davis 8.1
2005-06 Season
Steve Nash 10.5
Baron Davis 8.9
Brevin Knight 8.8
Chauncey Billups 8.6
Jason Kidd 8.4
2004-05 Season
Steve Nash 11.5
Brevin Knight 9.0
Jason Kidd 8.3
Stephon Marbury 8.1
Allen Iverson 8.0
And the winner is… Let’s not Kidd ourselves, (pardon the pun) into thinking anyone other than Steve Nash is going to win this award.
As long as Nash plays in the wide-open, run-and-gun system that head coach Mike D’Antoni has employed in Phoenix, Nash could lead the league in assists in his sleep. Not only is ‘Stevie Wonder’ one of the great assist artists of all-time, but he’s also playing with a ton of players that know how to make shots – a big plus for any point guard.
Take Nash to win this wager and don’t look back.
My pick for second place is none other than Deron Williams, who looks like he’s going to win one or two assist titles before his blossoming career is over.
I’m going with Hall of Fame bound point guard Jason Kidd for third place. Kidd has been in the top three in two of the past three seasons and should add another top-three finish to his resume as long as he’s playing alongside Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson.
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