Posted on 4/25/2008 7:11:30 PM

NBA Basketball Wagering – Jazz Look To Bounce Back From Rare Home Loss

By Eric Williams

While the Utah Jazz, (56-29 SU, 48-37 ATS, 44-40-1 O/U) recorded the best home record of any team in the league in the BetUS Sportsbook during the regular season, going an impressive 37-4 at EnergySolutions Arena, the Houston Rockets, (56-29 SU, 48-35-2 ATS, 36-48-1 O/U) became the first team this season to beat the Jazz twice at home by surprising the Jazz in Game 3 of their first round playoff matchup, winning 94-92 while getting solid performances from almost every member of their team, including one memorable performance by rookie power forward Carl Landry.

Now, the Jazz are concerned that the Rockets could beat them again at home in Game 4.

"It's definitely dangerous," Utah point guard Deron Williams said, "because they feel they can win against us. I think if they feel they can beat us in our gym, they can beat us anywhere. We definitely put ourself in a pressure situation and I think the next game for us is a must-win."

While Williams put up 28 points (21 in the first half) and 12 assists for the Jazz, the Rockets got a powerful performance from swingman Tracy McGrady who finished with 27 points, including seven during the Rockets' momentum-changing 10-0 run late in the fourth quarter.

"This was the biggest win of the season," McGrady said. "It really was. We played like we really didn't want to go home early. We played with a lot of passion and a lot of heart. We kept our composure. Down the stretch of the ball game, we did a great job."

The Rockets also got 20 points from starting point guard Rafer Alston in his return from a hamstring injury and an even more important 11 rebounds, seven points and two blocks from Landry, including a game-completing block on Williams’ driving layup on the last play of the game.

"We got a little flustered," Williams said. "You've got to give them credit. Their defense was good, they executed their game plan, especially in the second half. They were doubling me, trying to get the ball out of my hands, and after that, plays kind of broke down for us."

Landry, a terrific rookie forward out of Purdue, put on his commanding performance after getting hit in the face, (cheap shot) by Jazz power forward Carlos Boozer with three minutes left in the first half. The tough youngster flashed a big grin shortly thereafter, revealing a missing front left tooth.

Landry returned for the second half like an NHL hockey player and finished laying the ‘smackdown’ on Williams and the Jazz.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends followed by my NBA Betting Picks.

The Rockets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine Saturday games.

The Rockets are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a S.U. win.

The Jazz are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Conference Quarterfinals games.

The Jazz are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight playoff games as a favorite.

The Under is 4-0 in Rockets last four games following a S.U. win.

The Over is 4-1 in Jazz last five playoff games as a favorite.

The Rockets are 2-6 ATS in the last eight meetings in Utah.

The Rockets are 2-9 ATS in the last eleven meetings.

Analysis: I’ll keep this pick short and to the point for my beloved NBA bettors. While the Jazz would be the correct pick to win this game, I just don’t see them beating the Rockets by nine points, if at all. Take the Rockets and Carl Landry to cover the spread against the Jazz while possibly laying another surprising ‘smackdown’ on the Jazz.

NBA Free Picks: Rockets +8½ Points/Over 185½ Total Points

10:30 PM EST NBA Odds

Houston Rockets +8½ -110

Utah Jazz -8½ -110

Over 185½ -110

Under 185½ -110

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