Posted on 1/22/2008 2:32:35 PM

Bet on NBA - Phoenix (- 8.5) vs. Milwaukee (+ 8.5)

By D.S. Williamson

Milwaukee will not allow Michael Redd to have one of those special games tonight in order to hold off a Phoenix Suns’ team that has been surging in the past week. The Bucks haven’t been all that good against the spread, going 1 and 3, in their last four games. They’ve been even worse straight-up losing 5 out of their last 6 games.

Here some other trends to help sort this one out:

The Milwaukee Bucks are 8 and 2 against the spread in their last 10 Tuesday games.

The Milwaukee Bucks are 1 and 7 against the spread in their last 7 games versus a team from the Western Conference.

The Phoenix Suns are 0 and 5 against the spread in their last 5 Tuesday games.

The Phoenix Suns are 0 and 4 against the spread in their last 4 games versus the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Phoenix Suns have covered the spread in their last three games. To me that is not a good thing for them going into this game. Sure, it’s a powerful trend, but the Suns have a tendency to play down to their competition.

Three games in a row aren’t going to change my mind on that. This team is very good at jumping out to big leads and then slowly letting that lead get away from them. They dominated both the New Jersey Nets and Minnesota Timberwolves at home, but that was at home. The Suns also lost straight-up and against the spread versus the Los Angeles Clippers last week.

The problem with wagering on the Bucks is the fact that Michael Redd is sort of just getting himself back into the thick of it after taking a few games off. Milwaukee will need Redd to get crazy to have any chance of an upset tonight.

But they may only need Redd to put up twenty or so in order to keep this one close. The point spread is too high for me to recommend a wager on the Suns. I just don’t have faith that they will be able to cover three big spreads in a row.

The BetUS NBA beting line is Milwaukee Bucks + 8.5 against the spread on the road versus the Phoenix Suns.

I like the Bucks to beat the spread in this game. The Suns have the guns, but I expect a good old-fashioned “bounce” coming from the men from Phoenix. To cover four games in a row like this would be asking too much.

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