Posted on 1/10/2008 6:13:17 PM

NBA Wagering - Phoenix Suns (+ 6) vs. Utah Jazz (- 6)

By D.S. Williamson

This line opened at Utah – 2.5. It’s jumped all the way to 6 because the rumor is that Steve Nash is suffering from the flue and won’t be playing tonight. The Suns are all ready without Grant Hill so the loss of Nash is really affecting this line. I’m not sure if either loss will matter as the Suns have plenty of weapons to beat a 6 point spread.

But before I get into that, let’s take a look at some NBA betting trends:

The Utah Jazz are 2 and 8 against the spread in their last 10 Thursday games.

The Utah Jazz are 10 and 6 against the spread in 16 home games this season.

The Phoenix Suns are 9-9-1 against the spread in 19 away games this season.

Throw-out trends because the wager in this game will depend on 1) the point spread and 2) whether or not you as an NBA bettor believe that the getting six points is fair without Nash and Hill.

I, for one, believe that it is very fair. The Phoenix Suns are the type of team that is usually overblown by NBA bettors. What I mean is that we tend to give them the benefit of the doubt to often when it comes to making our own against the spread line. The Suns hardly ever cover spreads because the spreads are always outrageous.

In this game we are actually getting points. That’s huge because the Suns have been racking up points lately as if it had to do with them simply breathing. They were down versus the Indiana Pacers at home the other night and ended up winning 129 to 122. In the game before they beat Denver 137 to 115.

Utah has been okay on the defensive end, but that’s because they’ve been playing defensive-minded teams. With Barbosa running the point for Phoenix instead of Nash expect the Suns to push the ball even more up the court. Andrei Kirilenko, the one front-line Jazz player who doesn’t necessarily depend on getting the ball off of screens, is hurt as well.

That means that the Suns have a terrific chance of winning this game outright. Take advantage as getting a nice money-line on the Suns doesn’t happen often.

The BetUS NBA money-line is + 200 on the Phoenix Suns to win their game outright tonight against the Utah Jazz on the road.

I like the Suns only because this wager doesn’t happen very often and the presence of Barbosa at the point means that the Suns force the action in this game.

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