Posted on
12/28/2007 4:22:07 PM
NBA Betting Trends – Minnesota at Portland
By Eric Williams
No Greg Oden? No problem. The Portland Trailblazers, (16-12 SU, 17-11 ATS, 11-17 O/U), even after losing the top pick in the draft for the entire season, are showing everyone just why they may have the brightest future of any franchise in the entire NBA.
The Minnesota Timberwolves, (4-23 SU, 13-14 ATS, 9-16-2 O/U), on the other hand, are starting over after trading franchise player Kevin Garnett for a slew of athletic, but extremely young players from the Boston Celtics.
The Trailblazers, led by second-year players, Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge, enter tonight’s contest having won 11 straight games, their longest winning streak in nearly six years. The Blazers beat the Seattle Supersonics 89-79 on Wednesday, improving their home record to 13-3 this season. The Timberwolves have lost two straight and eight of their last nine, including a 105-101 loss to the Golden State Warriors.
Here is a look at tonight’s Key Trends, followed by my analysis and NBA Betting Free Picks:
Key Timberwolves Trends
The Timberwolves are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
The Timberwolves are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.
The Timberwolves are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Key Trailblazers Trends
The Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.
The Trail Blazers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
The Trail Blazers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.
Key Totals Trends
The Under is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 games as a road underdog.
The Under is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
The Under is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
The Under is 6-0 in Trail Blazers last 6 Friday games.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
The Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Portland.
The Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
The Under is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings.
Analysis: I don’t think there’s much doubt that the Blazers will win this contest, but I’m going against the grain here and taking the T-Wolves, as atrocious as they may be, to cover the spread against the Blazers by the narrowest of margins. An even better wager for this contest may be the ‘Over’. Minnesota allows 102.1 points per game while the Blazers are giving up 96.3 points per contest.
NBA Free Picks: Over 188.5 Total Points/Minnesota +9 Points
10:05 PM EST NBA Point Spreads
Minnesota Timberwolves +9 -110
Portland Trailblazers -9 -110
Over 188½ -110
Under 188½ -110
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