Posted on 4/25/2008 1:42:44 PM

NBA Playoff Betting – Suns Look To Rebound At Home Against Spurs

By Eric Williams

While the Phoenix Suns keep saying they have no doubt that they can beat the San Antonio Spurs in their first round playoff series despite being down 2-0 and getting thoroughly outplayed in losing Game 2 102-96, I have been telling the BetUS NBA betting Community for quite some time that the Suns’ acquisition of aging center Shaquille O’Neal was akin to trying to shove a big, round peg into a small square hole.

Still, the Suns persist with their talk of winning this series despite not having won a single game yet.

"We're going to play Friday, and we're going to bust them up Friday,” head coach Mike D’Antoni said. “That is our mind set. We still don't have any doubt that we can win the series."

"To be honest with you, we don't want to make a whole lot of changes,” D’Antoni added. "We feel good about the way things are going."

While San Antonio head coach Gregg Popovich said he understands the Suns' confidence, he also hinted that his team will be ready to face the challenges of playing on the road.

"We didn't beat anybody to death," Popovich said. "We had to work our butts off, we had to have some good fortune, we had to play well down the stretch to win both games at home. They're going home, they're going to feel good about themselves, so we've got to be ready for that."

While D’Antonio says the Suns need to improve their offensive production, by saying things like, “We need to hoist 'em up, we need to run more,” Phoenix general manager Steve Kerr disagreed with his head coach, saying the Suns’ emphasis should be on the defensive end of the floor.

"It's just defense," Kerr said. "It's just making stops when we need to. When they went on that little run and they were stopping us, if we could have buckled down a little bit and made stops, we could have withstood that little dry spell."

The Suns will lose one of their best players in starter Grant Hill who will sit out Game 3 because of a sore right groin.

"If he's not 100 percent, he won't play," D'Antoni said.

One thing the Suns won’t be facing is a Spurs team that is happy with their two home victories.

"I don't think these guys will be complacent," Popovich said. “There's always a natural tendency to feel good about anything that you've accomplished. But I think our team is experienced enough to know that they haven't accomplished anything yet, that the goal is way down the road."

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends followed by my NBA Gambling Free Picks:

The Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last six Conference Quarterfinals games.

The Spurs are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

The Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.

The Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

The Over is 4-0 in Spurs last four games following a S.U. win.

The Over is 4-0 in Suns last four Conference Quarterfinals games.

The Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Phoenix.

The Spurs are 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Phoenix.

Analysis: While the Suns will try to get out and run with their usual fastbreak style of ball, they will be emphatically reminded by the Spurs that there isn’t much running up and down the floor at all during the NBA postseason as the Spurs put the clamps on the Suns once again, turning this contest into another half-court affair. Though I will go with the Suns to win this game at home, there is absolutely no way I think they will cover the high, 6.5-point spread. Take the Spurs to cover in another “last possession” type of contest.

NBA Free Picks: San Antonio +6½ Points/Over 194½ Total Points

10:30 PM EST NBA Point Spreads

San Antonio Spurs +6½ -110

Phoenix Suns -6½ -110

Over 194½ -110

Under 194½ -110

You’ll find the latest 2007-2008 NBA odds and lines in the best online sportsbook, BetUS.com. Betting on NBA player and game props makes every aspect of the game exciting. Join BetUS.com today to bet on the NBA and make online sports betting work for you!