Posted on 5/22/2007 3:19:38 PM

NBA Playoff Betting Pistons Spurs a Lock

By Jim Leary

Can we just get the preliminaries over with?

The NBA’s conference finals are missing that certain something: competitiveness. After beating the Utah Jazz 108-100 on Sunday and holding off a matador cover as 6.5-point favorites, the San Antonio Spurs look like they’re about to steamroll into the next round.

San Antonio is –800 to play for its fourth title in the Tim Duncan Era; you can also get the Spurs on the futures market at +250 to sweep the Jazz, or +110 to win in five games.

The Detroit Pistons were already huge –350 favorites over the Cleveland Cavaliers before Monday’s series opener. The shortest odds in the “exact series result” department point at the Pistons winning in five (+210). Cleveland was priced at +500 to win in six games.

 

There is little reason to go against the chalk in either of these matchups. The Spurs are cleaning up by playing dirty – or by playing sound, fundamental basketball, depending on your point of view. They’re 9-3 straight up and 8-3-1 against the spread during the postseason.

Both the Denver Nuggets and the Phoenix Suns had the chance to use their speed advantage to knock San Antonio off its perch; neither got the job done. The Jazz don’t have the horses to play that game. They’re more like the Spurs’ younger brothers, with a balanced inside-outside attack and a nasty streak on defense. Older brother will always win that battle – at least, until the Jazz grow up.

Detroit’s dominance in the East is much the same, right down to the seven points the Pistons are giving Cleveland in Game 1. It only took ten games to dispose of the Orlando Magic and the Chicago Bulls. The Pistons went just 5-4-1 ATS during that stretch, thanks in large part to Chicago’s hot perimeter shooting.

Still, Detroit is 21-9-3 ATS in its last 33 games and 31-22-3 ATS since Chris Webber joined the club. These are two of the best defensive teams in the league, but Webber’s presence as a big man who can pass the ball makes the Pistons a complete offensive team. The Cavs, on the other hand, have to shuffle their guards around to cover up the holes in the backcourt.

If we do indeed end up with a Pistons-Spurs final, it appears Detroit will go in with some value. San Antonio is the current favorite for the NBA title at –200, followed by the Pistons at +180, the Cavs at +1000 and the Jazz at +1200. Bring it on.

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