Posted on
4/25/2008 8:01:46 PM
NBA Basketball Playoff Betting - L.A. Lakers at Denver
By Charles Jay
WHAT: Game 3 of Western Conference playoff series
WHO: Los Angeles Lakers (57-25 SU, 47-34-1 ATS) at Denver Nuggets (50-32 SU, 43-39 ATS) -- Regular season records
WHERE: Pepsi Center in Denver
WHEN: Saturday, April 26 at 5:30 PM ET
BetUS NBA betting odds: Denver -1, Total 229.5
Here are some of the NBA betting trends relative to this matchup:
* LA has covered five of its last six games
* LA has won 10 of its last 11 games SU
* LA has won and covered five of its last six road games
* LA has played four of its last six road games UNDER the total
* DEN has covered one of its last five games
* DEN has played six of its last seven games UNDER the total
* DEN has covered 16 of its last 24 home games
* DEN has won 11 of its last 12 home games SU
* DEN has played 15 of its last 21 home games OVER the total
In the HEAD-to-HEAD NBA basketball betting trends:
* LA has won the last five meetings SU
* LA has covered the last six meetings
* LA has covered ten of the last 12 meetings
* Five of the last eight meetings have gone UNDER the total
* DEN has won five of the last seven meetings SU as the home team
* LA has covered four of the last five meetings as the road team
* The home team has won 13 of the last 16 meetings SU
* LA has had the shooting edge in each of the last five meetings
* DEN has had the rebounding edge in three of the last four meetings
* LA has made more three-pointers in each of the last six meetings
Denver has been less than competitive with the Lakers thus far, losing by margins of 14 and 15 points, and in those games they have shot less than their season average of 47%. Now that they are going back home, it is necessary to take a look at what they have been able to do at the Pepsi Center. The Nuggets are the second-highest scoring team at home in the NBA, with 113 points per game.
The key is that Denver allows only 43.6% shooting at home, and that will come in handy against a Laker team that has shot 50% in both of the games in this series. And it has led George Karl's team to a 24-17 ATS record at Pepsi. But the flip side is that the Lakers have shot 50% or better in each of the last four games, while Denver has not hit that mark in its last five contests. To further illustrate the trends surrounding these teams, the Lakers have permitted its foes to shoot greater than 44% in only two of the last ten games.
Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson are getting their points. And J.R. Smith had 21 points off the bench in Game 2. But with Pau Gasol (36 in Game 1) and Kobe Bryant (49 in Game 2) capable of monster outputs, Denver has a defense challenge that it cannot match.
L.A. has mastery over this opponent, winning the last five and covering the last six. As long as the Lakers can keep turnovers low, they should be able to walk out of the Pepsi Center on Saturday with a win, thus making them a value getting a point as is posted in the BetUS NBA basketball playoff betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: L.A. LAKERS
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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com is a freelance writer and handicapper who not only can make his shots from the top of the key, but also contributes with gusto to the BetUS Locker Room)