Posted on 6/12/2007 5:32:20 PM

NBA Playoff Betting - Brown Bagging it in Cleveland

By Jim Leary

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Second verse, same as the first.

The Cleveland Cavaliers were once again crushed by the San Antonio Spurs in Game 2 of the NBA Finals. The Cavs were down by 27 points heading into the fourth quarter before threatening a back-door cover; in the end, it was San Antonio winning 103-92 and cashing in as 7-point favorites.

 

For Cavs supporters, it couldn’t have been a more frustrating day. Cleveland coach Mike Brown was once again unwilling to take hobbling Larry Hughes out of the starting lineup. Hughes’ line for Game 2: zero points in 20 minutes on 0-for-5 shooting. Worse, Hughes left the door open on defense, ending the game at minus-14. In Game 1, Hughes was minus-18 after scoring a single bucket in 23 minutes.

The frustrating part of this stubbornness on Brown’s part is that it comes at the expense of Daniel Gibson. He has been the second-best player on the Cavaliers since Hughes suffered a partial tear of the plantar fascia against the Detroit Pistons. Looking at the entire postseason, Gibson has a shiny Roland Rating of plus-10.4, second only to LeBron James at plus-18.4. Hughes is minus-6.6, and that includes when he was relatively healthy.

Brown did bring Gibson into Game 2 after just three minutes with Cleveland down 7-4, but it wasn’t to replace Hughes – it was in relief of James, who had picked up two quick fouls. It only took another 2:31 for the Cavs’ deficit to stretch from three to ten points. Brown’s response was to replace Gibson with Eric Snow, leaving James on the bench for the rest of the quarter.

 

It’s not as if Gibson’s value to the Cavs is a state secret. Every analyst from the most bookish blogger to the smiling faces at ESPN is in love with The Man They Call Boobie. Yet Brown has shown time and time again his reluctance to go with the rookie. That leaves handicappers wondering what it will take for Brown to change his mind.

Will it be the fourth quarter of Game 2, when the Cavaliers mounted their comeback using a backcourt of Gibson and Damon Jones? Combined with Donyell Marshall at power forward, this unit surrounds James with prime perimeter shooting; Gibson, Jones and Marshall were a combined 5-for-11 from downtown on Sunday night. Their presence on the perimeter draws out San Antonio’s defenders and gives James the room he needs to operate.

The game plan for bettors looking at Game 3 remains the same: Scour the local papers to see how Brown responds to questions about starting Gibson over Hughes. Those questions will not be in short supply.

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