Posted on 5/15/2008 1:45:50 PM

NBA Playoff Basketball Betting - New Orleans at San Antonio

By Charles Jay

BetUS Sportsbook basketball bettors will be deciding tonight whether they feel the San Antonio Spurs, the defending NBA champions, will be able to make a successful last stand, or whether they will unwillingly pass the torch to the upstart New Orleans Hornets and their superstar point guard, Chris Paul.

WHAT: Game 6 of the Western Conference semi-final playoff round

WHO: New Orleans Hornets (56-26 SU, 50-31-1 ATS) at San Antonio Spurs (56-26 SU, 38-44 ATS) (Regular season records)

WHERE: AT&T Center in San Antonio

WHEN: Thursday, May 15 at 9:00 PM ET

BetUS NBA sports betting odds: San Antonio -7, Total 184; Moneyline: San Antonio -320, New Orleans +260

Here are some of the NBA basketball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* NO has won five of its last seven games SU

* NO has covered one of its last six road games

* NO has lost six of its last seven road games SU

* NO has played five of its last seven road games UNDER the total

* SA is 2-4-1 ATS in its last seven games

* SA has won 18 of its last 25 games SU

* SA has played nine of its last 13 games OVER the total

* SA has covered eight of its last 11 home games

* SA has played four of its last six home games OVER the total

In the HEAD-to-HEAD NBA basketball online betting trends:

* SA has won 18 of the last 25 meetings SU

* NO has covered four of the last six meetings

* SA has won nine of the last ten meetings SU as the home team

* SA has covered six of the last nine meetings as the home team

* Eight of the last 12 meetings in San Antonio have gone OVER the total

* NO has had the shooting edge in five of the last six meetings

* NO has had the rebounding edge in four of the last six meetings

* SA has made more three-pointers in four of the last five meetings

New Orleans hasn't shot as well as usual in the last two games of this sports betting series (40% and 45%). But they have now beaten the Spurs at home by margins of 19, 18 and 22 points. It's as if once they blew past the Spurs in the second half, San Antonio rested its resources for the next game. Well, here it is. Is there any doubt about whether a real home court advantage exists when there has been only one road victory in this round of the online betting playoffs?

Here's what really interesting - San Antonio has found an opportunity to take open shots from beyond the arc against New Orleans. During the regular season they converted just 6.4 three-point shots per game, but in this series that figure has escalated to 9.6. Those who look to Tim Duncan for a barometer as to how well the Spurs have played are going to be confused. Duncan has been limited to 11 points per game at New Orleans, but shot almost 62% from the field in the games that were played in San Antonio. In the last meeting, he may have been ineffective in putting the ball through the hoop (10 points), but he did exert some control on the boards, with 23 rebounds, five of which came on the offensive end. Generally, I would say that's a good sign moving forward.

So is the fact that once again, Peja Stojakovic was stopped. The small forward shot just three-fro-eight from the field and scored nine points, as Bruce Bowen put on the brakes. Peja has now shot 33% over the last three games. If the Spurs can exist with Bowen blanketing Stojakovic, they will have to have somebody (Duncan?) concentrate on David West, who reappeared to score a game-high 38 points with 14 rebounds in what was a dominant Game 5 effort, and one that was needed, since Chris Paul was just 6-for-18 shooting.

All five of the games in this series have been won and covered by the home team, and all of them have ended in double-digit margins. We see no reason this one should be any different, and certainly not if we believe that San Antonio is not only proud enough, but proficient enough to perform when it is facing pending elimination. Do the Hornets want to roll the dice and take their chances on a winner-take-all Game 7? Perhaps not. But they won't have any choice.

We'll go with the San Antonio Spurs, the seven-point favorite in the BetUS NBA playoff basketball betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: SAN ANTONIO (-7)

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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com is a freelance writer and handicapper who not only can make his shots from the top of the key, but also contributes with gusto to the BetUS Locker Room)