Posted on 5/13/2008 3:11:06 PM

NBA Playoff Basketball Betting - Spurs at Hornets

By Charles Jay

BetUS Sportsbook basketball bettors can sense the drama. It's now down to a best two-out-of-three sports betting series between the San Antonio Spurs and New Orleans Hornets to see who will meet either the Lakers or Jazz in the Western Conference finals.

WHAT: Game 5 of the Western Conference semi-final playoff round

WHO: San Antonio Spurs (56-26 SU, 38-44 ATS) at New Orleans Hornets (56-26 SU, 50-31-1 ATS) (Regular season records)

WHERE: New Orleans Arena

WHEN: Tuesday, May 13 at 9:30 PM ET

BetUS NBA online betting odds: New Orleans -4, Total 186.5

Here are some of the NBA basketball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* SA is 6-9-1 ATS in its last 16 games

* SA has won 18 of its last 24 games SU

* SA has played nine of its last 12 games OVER the total

* SA has covered one of its last eight road games

* SA has played five of its last six road games OVER the total

* NO has won six of its last nine games SU

* NO has covered 15 of its last 18 home games

* NO has won 18 of its last 19 home games SU

* NO has played five of its last six home games OVER the total

In the HEAD-to-HEAD NBA basketball betting trends:

* SA has won 15 of the last 20 meetings SU

* Four of the last six meetings have gone OVER the total

* SA has covered 14 of the last 20 meetings as the road team

* SA has won nine of the last 13 meetings SU as the road team

* Four of the last six meetings in New Orleans have gone OVER the total

Chris Paul scored 23 points in Game 4 at San Antonio, but he was the only member of the Hornets' team to tally more than 11. The result of this was a 100-80 blowout, in which the outcome was hardly in doubt after the first quarter. Now that the series goes back to the New Orleans Arena, however, will the Spurs revert back to that team that looked old and tired as the Hornets blasted past them to take a 2-0 lead in the series?

We think not. It has become obvious that the defensive strategy coach Gregg Popovich implemented beginning with Game 3 has worked; that is, to let Paul score his points (within limits, of course), while taking away some of the people he would normally pass to, knowing that his true effectiveness is in stretching the defense and offering open shots to his teammates. The player most affected by this has been Peja Stojakovic, who was held to six points on three-of-nine shooting. After making 17 out of 30 shots in the first two games for 47 points, Stojakovic has hit just five shots from the field in the last two, has taken four trips to the free throw line, and tallied 14 points.

Obviously having Bruce Bowen, a first-team All-Defensive selection again this year, draped all over him has had an effect. And that will continue, since there doesn't seem to be a whole lot New Orleans can do about it.

Meanwhile, you just knew that sooner or later Tim Duncan was going to come alive. The former MVP was 10-for-13 with 15 rebounds last time out, and perhaps one of the effects of this is that David West seems to have disappeared from the radar screen. West once again had ten points in Game 4, and he needs to spring forth in order to give Paul an option on the inside.

We recognize that in the NBA, playoff series often turn on the home court advantage. But maybe this is an instance where San Antonio's edge in playoff experience is starting to show. With Bowen guarding Stojakovic, and Tony Parker also a pain in the neck to cover, there are fundamental edges the Spurs can build on. We'll take that experience, and the points, as we look for San Antonio to pull ahead in the series.

JAY'S PLAY: SAN ANTONIO (+4)

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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com is a freelance writer and handicapper who not only can make his shots from the top of the key, but also contributes with gusto to the BetUS Locker Room)