Posted on 5/9/2008 8:51:00 PM

NBA Playoff Basketball Betting - New Orleans at San Antonio

By Charles Jay

WHAT: Game 4 of the Western Conference semi-final playoff round

WHO: New Orleans Hornets (56-26 SU, 50-31-1 ATS) at San Antonio Spurs (56-26 SU, 38-44 ATS) (Regular season records)

WHERE: AT&T Center in San Antonio

WHEN: Sunday, May 11 at 8 PM ET

BetUS NBA basketball betting odds: San Antonio -5.5, Total 186

Here are some of the NBA basketball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* NO has covered five of its last eight games

* NO has lost five of its last six road games SU

* NO has played six of its last nine road games UNDER the total

* SA is 5-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games

* SA has won 17 of its last 23 games SU

* SA has played nine of its last 11 games OVER the total

* SA is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six home games

* SA has played four of its last five home games OVER the total

In the HEAD-to-HEAD NBA basketball betting trends:

* NO has covered six of the last nine meetings

* SA has won 14 of the last 19 meetings SU

* Seven of the last 11 meetings have gone OVER the total

* SA has won eight of the last nine meetings SU as the home team

* NO has had the shooting edge in six of the last eight meetings

* NO has had the rebounding edge in four of the last six meetings

In Game 3, New Orleans did a lot of things just the way they have been all along. that is to say, they shot 49% from the field, they committed just ten turnovers, and the Hornets' defense held Tim Duncan to low numbers (16 points). But the Spurs made the key adjustment in this game, which was to put Bruce Bowen on Peja Stojakovic with orders to lock down. That's exactly what Bowen did, and Stojakovic was held to just eight points on 2-for-7 shooting. That was essential, because it took away New Orleans' long-range shooting game for the most part, and without it, the 49% shooting meant less. San Antonio has decided that it is going to let Chris Paul get his points, because in the words of Tony Parker, "Chris is going to score regardless."

So is Parker, by the way. The San Antonio point guard shot 50% (12-24) and scored 31 points. This is no fluke, because if you recall, Parker averaged about 30 points in the series win against Phoenix. The fact is, neither Paul nor Parker are going to stop each other on the defensive end, so what the Spurs are hoping for is that it's basically a wash, and they can extract advantages elsewhere. Of course, Paul now has 34 assists with just four turnovers in this series, which is somewhat unreal. What the Spurs may want to do is force Paul to give up the ball a little more, because in Game 3, the rest of the Hornets had six assists and nine turnovers.

The other maneuver on San Antonio's part, this one with more of an effect on offense, was inserting Manu Ginobili into the starting lineup. Ginobili played almost 40 minutes, and even though he was bothered by a bad left ankle, he sizzled with 31 points and constantly stretched the New Orleans defense. And so, going back to the advantages we were seeking for the Spurs, it may be the fact that New Orleans doesn't appear to have the defensive stopper at the swingman position to take the perimeter game away.

Now the Hornets have all of a sudden lost five of their last six road games, and San Antonio, the more veteran team here, not only looked like they had gained a world of energy in the last 15 minutes or so of the last game, they have two days off to rest Ginobili's ankle, and for Tim Duncan to continue to get over the fever that had plagued him in the first two games. They lose a little bench strength as they start Manu, but even with Michael Finley and Brent Barry the main little guys off the pines (Fabricio Oberto had nine rebounds in Game 3 as well) they still have the edge over the erratic Bonzi Wells and youngster Jannero Pargo.

We'll lay the points with those re-energized Spurs, the 5.5-point favorites in the BetUS NBA playoff basketball betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: SAN ANTONIO (-5.5)

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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com is a freelance writer and handicapper who not only can make his shots from the top of the key, but also contributes with gusto to the BetUS Locker Room)