Posted on
3/18/2008 5:15:40 PM
NBA Picks Lakers Look to Snap Mavs Winning Streak Halt Skid
By Eric Williams
While the Los Angeles Lakers, (45-21 SU, 39-25-1 ATS, 32-33 O/U), come into tonight’s matchup having dropped consecutive games after winning six of their previous eight, the Dallas Mavericks, (44-23 SU, 30-33-4 ATS, 33-32-2 O/U), have cruised to five straight victories over some of the most mediocre teams in the eastern conference.
While the Lakers fell to the red-hot Houston Rockets 104-92 on the road on Sunday, the Mavericks capped off their five-game eastern conference set by routing the pitiful Miami Heat 98-73 in the BetUS.com Sportsbook on Sunday.
While Los Angeles will play without all-star caliber forward/center Pau Gasol because of a sprained ankle, the Mavericks have their own issues as they have failed to beat any of the top five teams in the western conference recently, going 0-5 against the conference’s playoff teams, including losses to the New Orleans Hornets, San Antonio Spurs, the Lakers, Utah Jazz and Houston Rockets.
"I wanted to get this team to a point where we can get some momentum," Dallas coach Avery Johnson said. "... Things could change quite a bit in the Western Conference over the next week or 10 days."
Gasol only played just over two minutes before injuring his ankle in Friday’s 108-98 loss to the New Orleans Hornets.
"Teams obviously can crowd the lane and go back to playing the type of defense against us that we've seen in the past," Bryant said. "What we have to do is focus on the defensive end a lot more. And I'll obviously have to shoulder more of the load."
The Lakers have failed to cover the spread in four consecutive games while the Mavericks have covered in five straight games coming into this contest.
Here is a look at tonight’s Key Trends, followed by my analysis and NBA Wagering Free Picks:
The Lakers are 8-2 ATS in their last ten Tuesday games.
The Lakers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5.
The Mavericks are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a S.U. win.
The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU win of more than ten points.
The Over is 5-0 in Lakers last five games playing on one days rest.
The Over is 7-0 in Mavericks last seven games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.
The Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Dallas.
The Over is 7-3 in the last ten meetings.
Analysis: Pau Gasol is out with a sprained ankle and Andrew Bynum is still rehabilitating his injured knee, but the Lakers still have Kobe Bryant and will cover this spread in a losing effort while Bryant single-handedly keeps this game close, though I will admit that the best pick for this contest is to take the ‘Over.’
NBA Free Picks: Over 205½ Total Points/Lakers + 5½ Points
08:35 PM EST Basketball Point Spread
LA Lakers +5½ -110
Dallas Mavericks -5½ -110
Over 205½ -110
Under 205½ -110
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