Posted on 5/24/2007 6:52:39 PM

NBA Odds - Jazz in Tough Against Spurs

By Jim Leary

What was Charles Barkley thinking?

After watching the San Antonio Spurs beat the Utah Jazz by eight points in Game 1 of their Western Conference finals, the TNT analyst and noted gambler declared he was changing his prediction of who would win the series – from the Spurs to the Jazz. That might have made some sense from a value perspective, but the Round Mound of Rebound wasn’t looking at the series price.

And, naturally, the Spurs won Game 2 by nine points to earn their second payday of the series. But was there some method to Barkley’s reasoning? Perhaps; the Jazz are 2-point favorites for Saturday’s Game 3 at the EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City. Utah is also –135 on the moneyline, with the total set at 190.

Barkley based his analysis primarily on Deron Williams, the emerging star point guard and already one of the best players on the Jazz. Williams is already a more dangerous offensive player than his opposite number, Tony Parker, and the sophomore just keeps getting better. His Player Efficiency Rating during the playoffs is 16.78, while Parker has struggled somewhat at 16.03 – although matching up against former league MVPs Allen Iverson and Steve Nash in the first two rounds can do that to you.

 

The frontcourt Jazz combo of Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur was Barkley’s other reason for switching his pick. Tim Duncan is the best player in this series, and second only to Amare Stoudemire in these playoffs with a 29.22 PER, yet his partners in the post include Fabricio Oberto (15.77 PER) and Francisco Elson (7.87 PER). They won’t be winning any MVP awards anytime soon.

However, while Utah might have an advantage at point guard and is definitely better across the starting frontline, the Spurs are tremendously gifted at the 2-spot. Manu Ginobili isn’t just one of the best shooting guards in the NBA – he’s one of the best players, period. His 21.58 playoff PER ranks second on the Spurs and 15th in the league. Utah counters with the fading Matt Harpring (12.78 PER) and the altogether disappearing Gordan Giricek (5.99 PER).

The Spurs also enjoy a significant edge in depth, and when he combines all those players, coach Gregg Popovich uses a game plan that has proven title-worthy three times since Duncan joined the club. There are ways for the Jazz to get around this, but there are even more reasons they’re down two games to none thus far. Perhaps Barkley would agree.

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